Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-06 09:01:33 ET
Market Status
Regime: N/A | Score: 0/100 (N/A) |
Insufficient data for leading/lagging analysis.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.09)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $728.68 | 50 SMA $681.62 | 200 SMA $671.87 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $717.49
- QQQ: $688.96 | 50 SMA $615.55 | 200 SMA $605.24 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $665.95
- IWM: $285.85 | 50 SMA $260.45 | 200 SMA $248.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $281.15
- VIX: 16.77 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.356%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $728.68 ▼ | 72.09 | 43.8 | $717.49 | Neutral | 0.80 |
| QQQ | $688.96 ▼ | 78.88 | 50.2 | $665.95 | Neutral | 0.85 |
| IWM | $285.85 ▼ | 69.55 | 35.3 | $281.15 | Neutral | 0.85 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.77 ▲ | 46.19 | 41.1 | $11.01 | Neutral | 1.02 |
| TNX | 43.56 ▼ | 65.73 | 25.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $430.31 ▲ | 33.99 | 23.9 | $419.23 | Neutral | 1.14 |
| DXY | 97.92 ▲ | 45.65 ▲ | 29.5 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $69.59 ▲ | 36.64 | 16.7 | $35.00 | Neutral | 0.89 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.01%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 24/28 |
| Energy | 80.0% | 16/20 |
| Technology | 70.8% | 46/65 |
| Financials | 66.2% | 45/68 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 12/24 |
| Industrials | 47.8% | 32/67 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 9/20 |
| Utilities | 43.3% | 13/30 |
| Health Care | 37.0% | 20/54 |
| Consumer Staples | 35.3% | 12/34 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 33.9% | 20/59 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $94.87 ▲ (5d: -9.7% ▲)
- Brent Crude: $102.73 ▼ | Spread: $7.86 ▼
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4600/gal ▲
- Heating Oil: $3.8300/gal ▲
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $55.63/bbl ▲ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.45
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.64
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.824 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.808 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | -0.647 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | N/A | N/A |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.78
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 ▲ (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.13 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $433.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $728 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $728.68)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -101,440 contracts (Z +0.80, as of 2026-04-28)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.6% (as of 2026-04-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (no triggers)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.36% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.76 (Normal)
- DXY: 97.92 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.95 ▼
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 82.0% | Cut 13.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.67% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6699.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $981.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,717B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,264B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,183B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $82,154 ▼ (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- No active alerts.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +0.95%
- Median Return: +1.46%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(Apr): 109 vs Est. 118 (MISS) | Prev: 61
- Crude Oil Inventories: ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.9% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓1.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓1.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑4.0% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.19 (↑0.8% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Iran lawmaker dismisses Axios report on possible US deal Time: 2026-05-06T12:58:14.034Z
[2] Iran says US proposal still under review Time: 2026-05-06T12:47:39.757Z
[3] Merz says disagreements with Trump over Iran will not harm ties Time: 2026-05-06T12:43:27.709Z
[4] Uranium removal from Iran 'impossible' - Iran military-linked outlet Time: 2026-05-06T12:27:54.540Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled