Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-05 20:00:21 ET

Market Status

Regime: N/A | Score: 0/100 (N/A) |

Insufficient data for leading/lagging analysis.

Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.09)

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $726.71 | 50 SMA $680.79 | 200 SMA $671.39 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $704.51
QQQ: $687.07 | 50 SMA $613.94 | 200 SMA $604.64 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $665.38
IWM: $284.14 | 50 SMA $260.01 | 200 SMA $248.36 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $277.78
VIX: 17.38 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.416%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$726.71	71.95	43.3	$704.51	Bearish	0.42
QQQ	$687.07	78.90	49.4	$665.38	Bearish	0.27
IWM	$284.14	65.43	31.6	$277.78	Bearish	0.35

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.38	49.64	40.7	$10.50	Neutral	0.98
TNX	44.16	72.51	23.4	-	-	-
GLD	$421.10	28.42	23.3	$330.00	Neutral	1.13
DXY	98.47	55.59	25.7	-	-	-
SLV	$66.88	36.36	16.7	$35.00	Neutral	0.84

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.71B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.01%
2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.3%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.8%
Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Real Estate	85.7%	24/28
Energy	80.0%	16/20
Technology	70.8%	46/65
Financials	66.2%	45/68
Materials	50.0%	12/24
Industrials	47.8%	32/67
Communication Services	45.0%	9/20
Utilities	43.3%	13/30
Health Care	37.0%	20/54
Consumer Staples	35.3%	12/34
Consumer Discretionary	33.9%	20/59

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $99.81 (5d: -6.6%)
Brent Crude: $107.47 | Spread: $7.66
RBOB Gasoline: $3.4300/gal
Heating Oil: $4.0200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $52.51/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $59.45
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.64

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.788	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.712	stretched
SPY / TNX	-0.751	stretched
SPY / Oil	N/A	N/A

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.78
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 2,808,271.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,179,823.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.13 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $433.4B
Gamma Call Wall: $725 | Put Wall: $700 (Spot: $726.71)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -101,440 contracts (Z +0.80, as of 2026-04-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.6% (as of 2026-04-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (no triggers)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.42%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.82 (Normal)
DXY: 98.47
Growth vs Value: 0.95
Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.67% (Above Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6699.9B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $981.9B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,717B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,266B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
Global Net Liquidity: $17,185B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $80,896 ▼ (Risk-on)

Active Alerts

No active alerts.

Seasonality

Current Month: May
Average Return: +0.95%
Median Return: +1.46%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI(Apr): 53.6 vs Est. 53.7 (MISS) | Prev: 54.0
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices(Apr): 70.7 vs Est. 73.7 (MISS) | Prev: 70.7
JOLTS Job Openings(Mar): 6.866 vs Est. 6.860 (INLINE) | Prev: 6.922
New Home Sales(Feb): 635 | Prev: 583
New Home Sales(Mar): 682 vs Est. 652 (BEAT) | Prev: 635
S&P Global Services PMI(Apr): 51.0 vs Est. 51.3 (MISS) | Prev: 49.8
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -8.100 vs Est. -2.800 (MISS) | Prev: -1.790
Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 3.7% vs Est. 3.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 3.5%
Building Permits(Feb): 1.538 vs Est. 1.538 (INLINE) | Prev: 1.386
Building Permits(Mar): 1.363 vs Est. 1.372 (INLINE) | Prev: 1.538
Exports(Mar): 320.90 | Prev: 314.70
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment(Apr): 48.0 vs Est. 48.3 (MISS) | Prev: 45.2
Imports(Mar): 381.20 | Prev: 372.40
New Home Sales(MoM)(Feb): 8.9% | Prev: -19.9%
New Home Sales(MoM)(Mar): 7.4% | Prev: 8.9%
S&P Global Composite PMI(Apr): 51.7 vs Est. 52.0 (MISS) | Prev: 50.3
Trade Balance(Mar): -60.30 vs Est. -61.00 (BEAT) | Prev: -57.80

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.9% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓1.7% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓1.1% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑4.0% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.19 (↑0.8% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled