Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-04 00:00:30
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.4% (5d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.458 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +8.4B — dealers long gamma, suppressing downside vol |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.83% benign, NFCI -0.518 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 55% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Copper/Gold 20d RoC +8.2% — growth expectations improving |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/Oil correlation unavailable |
| Volatility | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | VIX 17.0 sub-20 in contango · VVIX/VIX 5.60 above-trend |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 42 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | USD/JPY 5d -1.6% stable |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, credit, and growth expectations leaning bullish, but energy haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 73/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $102, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.458; GEX positive at 8.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.0 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.14)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $720.00 | 50 SMA $680.22 | 200 SMA $670.94 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $704.66
- QQQ: $673.55 | 50 SMA $612.66 | 200 SMA $604.08 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $654.85
- IWM: $278.88 | 50 SMA $259.75 | 200 SMA $248.09 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $273.72
- VIX: 16.99 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.378%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $720.00 | 79.10 | 41.4 | $704.66 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| QQQ | $673.55 | 82.79 | 48.3 | $654.85 | Bearish | 0.26 |
| IWM | $278.88 | 72.25 | 28.7 | $273.72 | Neutral | 0.84 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.99 | 38.31 | 36.6 | $10.50 | Bearish | 0.46 |
| TNX | 43.78 | 60.25 | 14.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $423.10 | 41.50 | 23.1 | $355.00 | Neutral | 0.77 |
| DXY | 98.21 | 47.44 | 27.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.19 | 50.02 | 16.7 | $65.62 | Neutral | 0.74 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.458
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.43B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.83% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.02%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.2%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.9% | 26/28 |
| Energy | 80.0% | 16/20 |
| Technology | 72.3% | 47/65 |
| Financials | 70.6% | 48/68 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| Utilities | 53.3% | 16/30 |
| Industrials | 52.2% | 35/67 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 11/24 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 40.7% | 24/59 |
| Consumer Staples | 35.3% | 12/34 |
| Health Care | 25.9% | 14/54 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $101.94 (5d: +5.8%)
- Brent Crude: $108.17 | Spread: $6.23
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.6000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.16/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.85
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.71
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.75 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.656 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.632 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | N/A | N/A |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.41
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.02 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- Gamma Call Wall: $725 | Put Wall: $710 (Spot: $720.00)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.38%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.80 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.21
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.69% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.48%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 42/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6699.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $981.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.6B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,717B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,299B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,217B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,233B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $80,327 ▲ (Risk-on ◆)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.458, GEX +8.4B, HY OAS 2.83%, breadth 55%.
- [WARNING] Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK with crack spread at $54.16/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 141 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.94 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.94 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.69% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $54.16/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [INFO] SPY (720.00) reclaimed ZGL (704.66) — volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +0.93%
- Median Return: +1.46%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI(Apr): 52.7 vs Est. 53.1 (MISS) | Prev: 52.7
- ISM Manufacturing Prices(Apr): 84.6 vs Est. 80.0 (BEAT) | Prev: 78.3
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Apr): 54.5 vs Est. 54.0 (BEAT) | Prev: 54.0
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 3.5% vs Est. 3.7% (MISS) | Prev: 3.7%
- ISM Manufacturing Employment(Apr): 46.4 vs Est. 49.0 (MISS) | Prev: 48.7
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.9% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.76 (↓2.5% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓1.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.22 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑8.7% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (14):
[1] US Dollar Index flat lines above 98.00 amid Hormuz tensions
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-flat-lines-above-9800-amid-hormuz-tensions-202605040254
Published: Mon, 04 May 2026 02:54:37 Z
[2] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $75.50 due to easing safe-haven demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-slips-below-7550-due-to-easing-safe-haven-demand-202605040242 Published: Mon, 04 May 2026 02:42:38 Z
[3] NZD/USD approaches 0.5925 hurdle as Iran tensions loom ahead of NZ and US jobs data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-approaches-05925-hurdle-as-iran-tensions-loom-ahead-of-nz-and-us-jobs-data-202605040220 Published: Mon, 04 May 2026 02:20:41 Z
[4] Canadian Dollar remains subdued amid lower oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-remains-subdued-amid-lower-oil-prices-202605040210 Published: Mon, 04 May 2026 02:10:11 Z
[5] RBNZ's Gai: Nothing suggests an automatic tightening bias URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbnzs-gai-nothing-suggests-an-automatic-tightening-bias-202605040205 Published: Mon, 04 May 2026 02:05:25 Z
[6] Pound Sterling edges higher despite Middle East uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-edges-higher-despite-middle-east-uncertainty-202605040159 Published: Mon, 04 May 2026 01:59:36 Z
[7] WTI recovers above mid-$98.00s after gap lower as Hormuz risks offset OPEC+ output hike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-recovers-above-mid-9800s-after-gap-lower-as-hormuz-risks-offset-opec-output-hike-202605040145 Published: Mon, 04 May 2026 01:45:11 Z
[8] EUR/USD falls to near 1.1700 as US to raise tariffs on EU vehicles URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-falls-to-near-11700-as-us-to-raise-tariffs-on-eu-vehicles-202605040132 Published: Mon, 04 May 2026 01:32:17 Z
[9] Australia ANZ Job Advertisements climbed from previous -3.1% to -0.8% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-anz-job-advertisements-climbed-from-previous-31-to-08-in-april-202605040131 Published: Mon, 04 May 2026 01:31:31 Z
[10] Australia Building Permits (YoY): 9% (March) vs previous 14% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-building-permits-yoy-9-march-vs-previous-14-202605040130 Published: Mon, 04 May 2026 01:30:48 Z
[11] Australia Building Permits (MoM) came in at -10.5%, below expectations (-9.9%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-building-permits-mom-came-in-at-105-below-expectations-99-in-march-202605040130 Published: Mon, 04 May 2026 01:30:01 Z
[12] Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) unchanged at 4.3% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-td-mi-inflation-gauge-yoy-unchanged-at-43-in-april-202605040107 Published: Mon, 04 May 2026 01:07:51 Z
[13] USD/JPY consolidates near 157.00 as Iran tensions counter suspected JPY intervention URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-consolidates-near-15700-vs-usd-as-iran-tensions-counter-suspected-intervention-202605040102 Published: Mon, 04 May 2026 01:02:51 Z
[14] Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) fell from previous 1.3% to 0.6% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-td-mi-inflation-gauge-mom-fell-from-previous-13-to-06-in-april-202605040102 Published: Mon, 04 May 2026 01:02:29 Z
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Seized Iranian vessel transferred to Pakistan for repatriation - ABC Time: 2026-05-04T03:53:23.411Z
[BREAKING] [2] Three more protesters executed in Iran Time: 2026-05-04T03:07:00.150Z
[3] US Hormuz plan may avoid direct naval escorts - Axios Time: 2026-05-04T02:49:00.000Z
[4] Merz says US won't deploy Tomahawk missiles in Germany Time: 2026-05-04T02:44:17.113Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled