Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-24 09:01:02
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (5d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.484 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +9.9B — dealers long gamma, suppressing downside vol |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.84% benign, NFCI -0.497 avg |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Breadth 56% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Copper/Gold 20d RoC +2.0% — growth expectations improving |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/Oil correlation unavailable |
| Volatility | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | VIX 19.0 sub-20 in contango · VVIX/VIX 5.23 above-trend |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, credit, and breadth leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.484; GEX positive at 9.9B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.0 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $710.76 | 50 SMA $676.55 | 200 SMA $668.21 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $696.78
- QQQ: $658.98 | 50 SMA $605.40 | 200 SMA $600.82 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $651.0
- IWM: $276.41 | 50 SMA $258.19 | 200 SMA $246.47 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $276.2
- VIX: 18.96 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.316%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $710.76 ▼ | 86.97 | 84.3 | $696.78 | Neutral | 1.35 |
| QQQ | $658.98 ▼ | 90.09 | 90.0 | $651.00 | Neutral | 1.00 |
| IWM | $276.41 ▼ | 86.55 | 69.3 | $276.20 | Bearish | 1.79 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.96 ▲ | 32.73 | 59.7 | $11.32 | Neutral | 0.99 |
| TNX | 43.16 ▲ | 51.38 | 48.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $431.65 ▼ | 51.33 | 44.5 | $416.33 | Neutral | 0.90 |
| DXY | 98.68 ▲ | 29.12 ▲ | 23.7 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.30 ▼ | 56.36 | 25.8 | $69.67 | Neutral | 1.09 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.484
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.89B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 55.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.6%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 76.5% | 52/68 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 21/28 |
| Technology | 66.2% | 43/65 |
| Energy | 65.0% | 13/20 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 12/20 |
| Industrials | 55.2% | 37/67 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.2% | 32/59 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 12/24 |
| Utilities | 43.3% | 13/30 |
| Consumer Staples | 35.3% | 12/34 |
| Health Care | 27.8% | 15/54 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $96.08 ▲ (5d: +7.2% ▲)
- Brent Crude: $99.58 ▲ | Spread: $3.50 ▼
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3200/gal ▲
- Heating Oil: $3.9000/gal ▲
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $51.48/bbl ▼ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.98
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.52
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.831 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.633 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.746 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | N/A | N/A |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 67.70
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.24 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- Gamma Call Wall: $715 | Put Wall: $700 (Spot: $710.76)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.32% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 ▲ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.68 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.93 ▼
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.61% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.38%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.15%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6707.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $1006.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,701B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,274B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,151B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,126B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,352 ▲ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] DIX at 0.484 — strong dark pool buying activity.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.484, GEX +9.9B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 56%.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.61% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $51.57/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: April
- Average Return: +2.37%
- Median Return: +1.57%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(Apr): ⏳ Pending
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(Apr): ⏳ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(Apr): ⏳ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.07 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.62 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.5% vs 30d)
- META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.64 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.95 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.38 (↓1.2% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.76 (↓3.4% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.35 (↓13.3% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iran negotiating team head Ghalibaf quits Time: 2026-04-24T12:49:35.416Z
[BREAKING] [2] Iran's Araghchi to visit Islamabad, Muscat, Moscow - state media Time: 2026-04-24T12:40:36.871Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled