Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-24 04:00:30
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (5d) | Alignment: 17% (1 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE — Moderate divergence — several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.484 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | GEX +9.9B — dealers long gamma, suppressing downside vol |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.84% benign, NFCI -0.497 avg |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Breadth 56% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy SHOCK_UP — supply spike driving inflation transmission |
| growth_expectations | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold 20d RoC +2.9% — growth expectations improving |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/Oil correlation unavailable |
| Volatility | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | VIX 19.3 sub-20 in contango · VVIX/VIX 5.10 above-trend |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, credit, and breadth flash bullish against the risk-on tape — 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy in SHOCK_UP (WTI at $97, severe macro headwind); DIX stable at 0.484; GEX positive at 9.9B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.3 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $708.62 | 50 SMA $676.23 | 200 SMA $667.77 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $696.59
- QQQ: $653.76 | 50 SMA $604.61 | 200 SMA $600.32 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $640.99
- IWM: $275.31 | 50 SMA $258.00 | 200 SMA $246.20 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $276.49
- VIX: 19.31 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.323%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $708.62 | 90.56 | 84.1 | $696.59 | Bearish | 1.66 |
| QQQ | $653.76 | 94.34 | 90.5 | $640.99 | Bearish | 1.76 |
| IWM | $275.31 | 89.68 | 67.7 | $276.49 | Bearish | 1.97 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.31 | 29.15 | 60.0 | $11.32 | Neutral | 1.00 |
| TNX | 43.23 | 46.31 | 52.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $431.30 | 48.05 | 43.8 | $415.97 | Neutral | 1.11 |
| DXY | 98.81 | 29.95 | 24.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.40 | 55.38 | 24.9 | $70.58 | Neutral | 1.15 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.484
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.89B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 55.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.6%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 76.5% | 52/68 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 21/28 |
| Technology | 66.2% | 43/65 |
| Energy | 65.0% | 13/20 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 12/20 |
| Industrials | 55.2% | 37/67 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.2% | 32/59 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 12/24 |
| Utilities | 43.3% | 13/30 |
| Consumer Staples | 35.3% | 12/34 |
| Health Care | 27.8% | 15/54 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK_UP
- WTI Crude: $97.00 (5d: +15.7%)
- Brent Crude: $106.47 | Spread: $9.47
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3500/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $51.26/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.98
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.52
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.831 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.64 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.743 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | N/A | N/A |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 67.70
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,857,545
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,783,700
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.24 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- Gamma Call Wall: $715 | Put Wall: $700 (Spot: $708.62)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.32%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.81
- Growth vs Value: 0.92
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 82.0% | Cut 13.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.61% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.38%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.15%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6707.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $1006.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,701B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,274B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,151B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,126B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,670 ▼ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $97.00 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [INFO] DIX at 0.484 — strong dark pool buying activity.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.484, GEX +9.9B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 56%.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.61% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $51.26/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: April
- Average Return: +2.37%
- Median Return: +1.57%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 214 vs Est. 211 (BEAT) | Prev: 208
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Apr): 54.0 vs Est. 52.5 (BEAT) | Prev: 52.3
- S&P Global Services PMI(Apr): 51.3 vs Est. 50.5 (BEAT) | Prev: 49.8
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,821 vs Est. 1,820 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,809
- Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,707 | Prev: 6,706
- S&P Global Composite PMI(Apr): 52.0 vs Est. 50.6 (BEAT) | Prev: 50.3
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.07 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.62 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.5% vs 30d)
- META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.64 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.95 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.38 (↓1.2% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.76 (↓3.4% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.35 (↓13.3% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (22):
[1] EUR/CHF: Higher Oil seen lifting cross - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-chf-higher-oil-seen-lifting-cross-ing-202604240707 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 07:07:54 Z
[2] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.3700 to test nine-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-holds-above-13700-to-test-nine-day-ema-202604240705 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 07:05:20 Z
[3] USD: Liquidity backstops and war pressures - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-liquidity-backstops-and-war-pressures-commerzbank-202604240648 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:48:00 Z
[4] Gold bears retain control near two-week low as USD firms on Iran jitters, inflation fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-seems-vulnerable-near-two-week-low-as-us-iran-standoff-and-inflation-fears-lift-usd-202604240359 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:47:48 Z
[5] France Consumer Confidence registered at 84, below expectations (88) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-consumer-confidence-registered-at-84-below-expectations-88-in-april-202604240645 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:45:00 Z
[6] EUR/GBP remains stalled below 0.8680 following strong UK Retail Sales data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-remains-stalled-below-08680-following-strong-uk-retail-sales-data-202604240641 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:41:41 Z
[7] Equities: Tech underperforms on software slump - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-tech-underperforms-on-software-slump-danske-bank-202604240636 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:36:30 Z
[8] USD/INR gains further due to higher oil prices, FIIs selling pressure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-extends-winning-streak-amid-fears-of-prolonged-hormuz-closure-202604240510 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:34:13 Z
[9] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD may rebound toward the two-month high of 1.3599 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-may-rebound-toward-the-two-month-high-of-13599-202604240631 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:31:38 Z
[10] EUR/USD: Downside risk hinges on 1.1665 break - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-downside-risk-hinges-on-11665-break-uob-202604240621 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:21:34 Z
[11] Newmont (NEM) Q1 earnings: Taking a look at key metrics versus estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/newmont-nem-q1-earnings-taking-a-look-at-key-metrics-versus-estimates-202604240621 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:21:25 Z
[12] GBP/JPY drops to near 215.00 even as UK Retail Sales beats estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-drops-to-near-21500-even-as-uk-retail-sales-beats-estimates-202604240619 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:19:40 Z
[13] Pound Sterling steadies above 1.3450 following UK Retail Sales data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-steadies-above-13450-following-uk-retail-sales-data-202604240615 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:15:55 Z
[14] UK Retail Sales jump 0.7% MoM in March vs. 0.2% expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-retail-sales-jump-07-mom-in-march-vs-02-expected-202604240601 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:01:35 Z
[15] United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-retail-sales-ex-fuel-mom-meets-forecasts-02-in-march-202604240600 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:00:06 Z
[16] United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) below expectations (2%) in March: Actual (1.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-retail-sales-ex-fuel-yoy-below-expectations-2-in-march-actual-17-202604240600 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:00:05 Z
[17] United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.7%, above forecasts (0.2%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-retail-sales-mom-came-in-at-07-above-forecasts-02-in-march-202604240600 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:00:05 Z
[18] United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 1.7%, above forecasts (1.3%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-retail-sales-yoy-came-in-at-17-above-forecasts-13-in-march-202604240600 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:00:04 Z
[19] Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.6% in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-producer-price-index-mom-climbed-from-previous-02-to-06-in-march-202604240600 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:00:04 Z
[20] Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY): 2% (March) vs -1.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-producer-price-index-yoy-2-march-vs-17-202604240600 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:00:03 Z
[21] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Aims to stabilize above 20-day EMA after three-day rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-aims-to-stabilize-above-20-day-ema-after-three-day-rally-202604240539 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 05:39:53 Z
[22] Asian stocks mixed, Nikkei advances as annual inflation remains below BoJ's 2% target URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stocks-mixed-nikkei-advances-as-annual-inflation-remains-below-bojs-2-target-202604240526 Published: Fri, 24 Apr 2026 05:26:26 Z
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] Iran internet blackout enters 56th day as connectivity remains near-total cut - NetBlocks Time: 2026-04-24T07:43:04.133Z
[2] Iran official warns of retaliatory strikes on Saudi oil sites Time: 2026-04-24T07:39:27.907Z
[3] China rejects Trump remark seized Iran ship was 'gift from China' Time: 2026-04-24T07:35:41.491Z
[4] EU's Kallas says Iran talks need nuclear experts to avoid 'weaker' deal Time: 2026-04-24T07:06:21.430Z
[5] China urges citizens to leave Iran, reiterates travel warning Time: 2026-04-24T06:42:22.931Z
[6] Iran cleric says Trump must apologize over Khamenei killing Time: 2026-04-24T06:16:12.609Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled