Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-20 09:00:55
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (5d) | Alignment: 50% (0 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.509 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | — | GEX +9.8B — dealers long gamma, suppressing downside vol |
| Credit | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | HY OAS 2.86% moderate, NFCI -0.465 avg — moderate |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | — | Breadth 61% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | 🟢 BULLISH | — | Copper/Gold 20d RoC +2.9% — growth expectations improving |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | — | SPY/Oil -0.65 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | 🟢 BULLISH | — | VIX 18.9 sub-20 in contango — market pricing low risk |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable — no carry disruption |
| Liquidity | 🟢 BULLISH | — | Liquidity Expanding — macro flow supports risk |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and growth expectations leaning bullish, but correlations haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 88/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.509; GEX positive at 9.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.9 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.23)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $707.63 | 50 SMA $674.99 | 200 SMA $666.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $687.2
- QQQ: $647.00 | 50 SMA $602.10 | 200 SMA $598.89 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $624.27
- IWM: $273.86 | 50 SMA $257.19 | 200 SMA $245.38 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $274.56
- VIX: 18.93 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.270%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $707.63 ▲ | 96.83 | 92.0 | $687.20 | Neutral | 0.82 |
| QQQ | $647.00 ▲ | 95.47 | 96.4 | $624.27 | Neutral | 0.80 |
| IWM | $273.86 ▲ | 89.87 | 83.7 | $274.56 | Bearish | 1.24 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.93 ▼ | 10.98 | 62.1 | $11.37 | Neutral | 1.06 |
| TNX | 42.70 ▲ | 27.34 | 74.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $440.95 ▼ | 73.33 | 53.3 | $405.00 | Bullish | 0.42 |
| DXY | 98.21 ▼ | 18.17 ▼ | 36.7 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $72.07 ▲ | 77.71 | 27.5 | $50.00 | Bullish | 0.57 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.509
- DIX Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.78B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.86% (Benign)
- BBB Spread: 1.01%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.55% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.9% | 26/28 |
| Financials | 86.8% | 59/68 |
| Technology | 76.9% | 50/65 |
| Communication Services | 70.0% | 14/20 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 62.7% | 37/59 |
| Materials | 62.5% | 15/24 |
| Utilities | 53.3% | 16/30 |
| Industrials | 52.2% | 35/67 |
| Health Care | 46.3% | 25/54 |
| Consumer Staples | 20.6% | 7/34 |
| Energy | 15.0% | 3/20 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.88 ▼ (5d: -4.8% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $94.74 ▼ | Spread: $7.86 ▲
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.4500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $45.98/bbl ▲ (Very Wide (refiner windfall))
- XLE (Energy Sector): $55.02
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.84
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.816 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.624 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.679 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.652 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.70
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.29 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.94 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- Gamma Call Wall: $715 | Put Wall: $700 (Spot: $707.63)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.27% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.67 ▲ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.21 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.91 ▲
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.56% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.36%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.16%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6705.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $751.4B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,954B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,747B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,115B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $75,335 ▼ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] DIX at 0.509 — strong dark pool buying activity.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.509, GEX +9.8B, HY OAS 2.86%, breadth 61%.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.56% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $45.76/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: April
- Average Return: +2.38%
- Median Return: +1.57%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 101.7898 | Prev: 102.344
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- TSLA (2026-04-22): EPS Est. $0.36 (↓11.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.07 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.61 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.62 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.94 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (↓0.8% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.80 (↓3.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (14):
[1] USD/JPY: Policy risks keep pair near 160 - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-policy-risks-keep-pair-near-160-rabobank-202604201249 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:49:05 Z
[2] GBP: Stabilisation supports MPC focus on expectations - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-stabilisation-supports-mpc-focus-on-expectations-td-securities-202604201237 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:37:33 Z
[3] Breaking: Canada annual CPI inflation rises to 2.4% in March vs. 2.5% forecast URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-cpi-is-expected-to-jump-in-march-amid-higher-energy-prices-202604200800 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:34:54 Z
[4] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD - Political noise and softer BoE pricing URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-political-noise-and-softer-boe-pricing-202604201232 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:32:02 Z
[5] Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM): 0% (March) vs previous 0.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-consumer-price-index-core-mom-0-march-vs-previous-02-202604201230 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:30:51 Z
[6] Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.9%, below expectations (1.1%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-consumer-price-index-mom-registered-at-09-below-expectations-11-in-march-202604201230 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:30:11 Z
[7] Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) up to 2.5% in March from previous 2.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-boc-consumer-price-index-core-yoy-up-to-25-in-march-from-previous-23-202604201230 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:30:03 Z
[8] Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) down to 0.2% in March from previous 0.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-boc-consumer-price-index-core-mom-down-to-02-in-march-from-previous-04-202604201230 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:30:03 Z
[9] Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.4%, below expectations (2.5%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-consumer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-24-below-expectations-25-in-march-202604201230 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:30:03 Z
[10] Gold steadies after gap lower as markets assess US-Iran developments URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-steadies-after-gap-lower-as-markets-assess-us-iran-developments-202604201214 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:14:15 Z
[11] EUR/USD struggles below 1.1770 with the US-Iran peace talks in question URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-bounces-up-to-11760-but-tensions-in-the-middle-east-cap-gains-202604200846 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:13:28 Z
[12] DXY: Energy shock seen contained in broad range - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dxy-energy-shock-seen-contained-in-broad-range-bbh-202604201212 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:12:32 Z
[13] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains trapped in a range below $4,850 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-remains-trapped-in-a-range-below-4-850-202604201210 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:10:35 Z
[14] Brent: Slower normalisation lifts forecasts - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-slower-normalisation-lifts-forecasts-societe-generale-202604201159 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 11:59:29 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iran judiciary chief says Tehran has not backed down in talks Time: 2026-04-20T12:38:45.043Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled