Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-20 06:00:33
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.2% (5d) | Alignment: 50% (0 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.509 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | — | GEX +9.8B — dealers long gamma, suppressing downside vol |
| Credit | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | HY OAS 2.86% moderate, NFCI -0.465 avg — moderate |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | — | Breadth 61% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy SHOCK_DOWN — rapid oil decline, let credit and breadth lead |
| growth_expectations | 🟢 BULLISH | — | Copper/Gold 20d RoC +3.6% — growth expectations improving |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | — | SPY/Oil -0.65 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | 🟢 BULLISH | — | VIX 17.5 sub-20 in contango — market pricing low risk · VVIX/VIX 5.44 above-trend vol-of-vol |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable — no carry disruption |
| Liquidity | 🟢 BULLISH | — | Liquidity Expanding — macro flow supports risk |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and growth expectations leaning bullish, but correlations haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 87/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.509; GEX positive at 9.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.5 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.23)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $710.75 | 50 SMA $674.99 | 200 SMA $666.48 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $687.12
- QQQ: $648.85 | 50 SMA $602.10 | 200 SMA $598.89 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $624.34
- IWM: $275.95 | 50 SMA $257.19 | 200 SMA $245.38 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $263.65
- VIX: 17.48 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.246%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $710.75 | 96.83 | 92.0 | $687.12 | Bullish | 0.23 |
| QQQ | $648.85 | 95.47 | 96.4 | $624.34 | Neutral | 0.73 |
| IWM | $275.95 | 89.87 | 83.7 | $263.65 | Bullish | 0.44 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.48 | 10.98 | 62.1 | $10.50 | Bullish | 0.56 |
| TNX | 42.46 | 27.34 | 74.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $443.85 | 73.33 | 53.3 | $405.00 | Bullish | 0.30 |
| DXY | 98.28 | 19.64 | 37.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $73.25 | 77.71 | 27.5 | $50.00 | Bullish | 0.39 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.509
- DIX Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.78B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.86% (Benign)
- BBB Spread: 1.01%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.55% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.9% | 26/28 |
| Financials | 86.8% | 59/68 |
| Technology | 76.9% | 50/65 |
| Communication Services | 70.0% | 14/20 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 62.7% | 37/59 |
| Materials | 62.5% | 15/24 |
| Utilities | 53.3% | 16/30 |
| Industrials | 52.2% | 35/67 |
| Health Care | 46.3% | 25/54 |
| Consumer Staples | 20.6% | 7/34 |
| Energy | 15.0% | 3/20 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK_DOWN
- WTI Crude: $82.59 (5d: -16.6%)
- Brent Crude: $90.38 | Spread: $7.79
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9300/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.3000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $45.65/bbl (Very Wide (refiner windfall))
- XLE (Energy Sector): $55.02
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.84
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.797 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.634 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.675 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.652 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.70
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 797,908
- 0DTE Put Volume: 751,921
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.94 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- Gamma Call Wall: $715 | Put Wall: $693 (Spot: $710.75)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.25%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.65 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.28
- Growth vs Value: 0.91
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.56% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.36%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.16%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6705.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $751.4B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,954B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,747B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,115B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $75,105 ▲ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK_DOWN with crack spread at $45.65/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] DIX at 0.509 — strong dark pool buying activity.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.509, GEX +9.8B, HY OAS 2.86%, breadth 61%.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.56% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $45.65/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: April
- Average Return: +2.38%
- Median Return: +1.57%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 101.7898 | Prev: 102.344
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- TSLA (2026-04-22): EPS Est. $0.36 (↓11.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.07 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.61 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.62 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.94 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (↓0.8% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.80 (↓3.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (19):
[1] EUR/USD: Range trade expected after failed push higher - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-range-trade-expected-after-failed-push-higher-uob-202604200956 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:56:07 Z
[2] WTI Oil holds around $87.00 as the US-Iran peace process teeters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-holds-around-8700-as-the-us-iran-peace-process-teeters-202604200946 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:46:20 Z
[3] USD/CAD steadies as Middle East war support Dollar, Canada CPI data looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-steadies-as-middle-east-war-support-dollar-canada-cpi-data-looms-202604200945 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:45:46 Z
[4] USD: Volatility shifts support weaker trend - HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-volatility-shifts-support-weaker-trend-hsbc-202604200942 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:42:16 Z
[5] GBP/USD: Political noise and softer BoE pricing - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-political-noise-and-softer-boe-pricing-ing-202604200931 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:31:47 Z
[6] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604200930 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:30:34 Z
[7] USD/INR jumps higher as Oil price recovery batters Indian Rupee URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-opens-higher-as-oil-prices-recover-on-renewed-mideast-conflicts-202604200520 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:12:44 Z
[8] Gold: Buy dips as geopolitics whipsaw risk - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-buy-dips-as-geopolitics-whipsaw-risk-ocbc-202604200907 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:07:21 Z
[9] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bulls remain on the sidelines as Oil prices rally on Hormuz risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-bulls-remain-on-the-sidelines-as-oil-prices-rally-on-hormuz-risks-202604200906 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:06:50 Z
[10] Eurozone Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) remains at -1.9% in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-construction-output-wda-yoy-remains-at-19-in-february-202604200901 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:01:26 Z
[11] Eurozone Construction Output s.a (MoM) down to -0.2% in February from previous -0.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-construction-output-sa-mom-down-to-02-in-february-from-previous-01-202604200901 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:01:13 Z
[12] USD/JPY gains to near 159.00 after natural calamities in Japan URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-gains-to-near-15900-after-natural-calamities-in-japan-202604200900 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:00:41 Z
[13] Canada CPI set to accelerate in March on rising energy costs amid US-Iran war URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-cpi-is-expected-to-jump-in-march-amid-higher-energy-prices-202604200800 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:00:00 Z
[14] Brent: Strait risk repricing drives fresh gains - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-strait-risk-repricing-drives-fresh-gains-rabobank-202604200849 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 08:49:10 Z
[15] EUR/USD bounces up to 1.1760, but tensions in the Middle East cap gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-bounces-up-to-11760-but-tensions-in-the-middle-east-cap-gains-202604200846 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 08:46:48 Z
[16] EUR/JPY holds gains near 187.00, focus on Japan's Tsunami alert URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-holds-gains-near-18700-focus-on-japans-tsunami-alert-202604200845 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 08:45:56 Z
[17] AUD/USD: Volatile swings contained in lower range - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-volatile-swings-contained-in-lower-range-uob-202604200833 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 08:33:00 Z
[18] AUD/USD picks up to 0.7150 despite rising tesions in the Middle East URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-picks-up-to-07150-despite-rising-tesions-in-the-middle-east-202604200814 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 08:14:38 Z
[19] S&P 500: Record highs with conflict-sensitive backdrop - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-record-highs-with-conflict-sensitive-backdrop-deutsche-bank-202604200814 Published: Mon, 20 Apr 2026 08:14:05 Z
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] Trump says he will consider Munir view on Iran ports blockade - Reuters Time: 2026-04-20T09:22:54.609Z
[2] Iran ships not bound by US blockade, lawmaker says Time: 2026-04-20T09:05:47.510Z
[3] 'Our uranium is as sacred as our soil,' Iran FM Spokesman says Time: 2026-04-20T08:33:26.449Z
[4] Iran limits internet to favored groups as shutdown hits 52nd day, NetBlocks says Time: 2026-04-20T08:25:55.937Z
[5] Pakistan deploys 20,000 personnel ahead of potential Iran-US talks -Reuters Time: 2026-04-20T08:20:47.765Z
[BREAKING] [6] Iran warns of response after US action against vessel in Oman Sea Time: 2026-04-20T08:00:50.469Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled