Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-14 13:30:51
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +2.1% (5d) | Alignment: 75% (3 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.458 above 0.45 but falling — institutional buying fading |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +5.7B — dealers long gamma, suppressing downside vol |
| Credit | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | HY OAS 2.95% moderate |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 53% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Copper/Gold 20d RoC +10.2% — growth expectations improving |
| financial_conditions | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | NFCI -0.433 — financial conditions near average |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.83 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | VIX 18.4 sub-20 in contango — market pricing low risk |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 41 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | USD/JPY 5d +0.0% — stable, no carry disruption |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Expanding but rotation Defensive — mixed signal |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX falling to 0.458 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 53% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.4 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.19)
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $92.57 ▲ (5d: -1.9% ▲)
- Brent Crude: $95.32 ▲ | Spread: $2.75 ▲
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal ▲
- Heating Oil: $3.4800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $39.31/bbl ▲ (Wide (strong refining margins))
- XLE (Energy Sector): $55.72
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.55 ▲
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 157 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.458, GEX +5.7B, HY OAS 2.95%, breadth 53%.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.61% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $39.04/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $124.15 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $693.85 | 50 SMA $674.13 | 200 SMA $664.76 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $678.7
- QQQ: $627.08 | 50 SMA $600.40 | 200 SMA $597.08 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $605.7
- IWM: $268.86 | 50 SMA $256.42 | 200 SMA $244.28 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $246.0
- VIX: 18.39 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.264%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $693.85 ▲ | 67.92 | 87.4 | $678.70 | Bullish | 0.33 |
| QQQ | $627.08 ▼ | 65.23 | 84.0 | $605.70 | Bullish | 0.14 |
| IWM | $268.86 ▲ | 70.32 | 86.2 | $246.00 | Bullish | 0.29 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.39 ▲ | 35.29 | 75.7 | $10.50 | Bearish | 3.24 |
| TNX | 42.64 ▼ | 46.34 | 76.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $443.25 ▼ | 67.73 | 54.0 | $424.61 | Bullish | 0.67 |
| DXY | 98.09 ▼ | 34.24 ▼ | 48.5 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $71.90 ▲ | 63.64 | 27.8 | $67.87 | Bullish | 0.61 |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.42
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,608,044 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,669,190 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.02 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- Gamma Call Wall: $695 | Put Wall: $665 (Spot: $693.85)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.95% (Benign)
- BBB Spread: 1.04%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.458
- DIX Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.67B
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,113B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $74,760 ▼ (Neutral)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.0%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 70.0% | 21/30 |
| Financials | 69.1% | 47/68 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 19/28 |
| Communication Services | 65.0% | 13/20 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 14/24 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 38/67 |
| Technology | 55.4% | 36/65 |
| Energy | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 26/59 |
| Health Care | 40.7% | 22/54 |
| Consumer Staples | 14.7% | 5/34 |
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.912 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.916 | severe |
| SPY / TNX | -0.932 | severe |
| SPY / Oil | -0.835 | severe |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.26% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.65 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.09 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▼
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.43 ▲ (Defensive)
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 82.0% | Cut 13.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.61% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.38%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.15%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100
Seasonality
- Current Month: April
- Average Return: +2.25%
- Median Return: +1.57%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- PPI(MoM)(Mar): 0.5% vs Est. 1.1% (MISS) | Prev: 0.5%
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 39.30 | Prev: 26.00
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: ⏳ Pending
- Core PPI(MoM)(Mar): 0.1% vs Est. 0.4% (MISS) | Prev: 0.3%
Earnings:
- JPM: EPS Est. $5.51 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- TSLA (2026-04-22): EPS Est. $0.38 (↓6.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.07 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.61 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.62 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.94 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.76 (↓3.4% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] WTI Oil retreats for second day on US-Iran diplomacy hopes, Hormuz risks cap downside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-retreats-for-second-day-on-us-iran-diplomacy-hopes-hormuz-risks-cap-downside-202604141710 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 17:10:49 Z
[2] USD/SGD: MAS tightening supports stronger Singapore Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-sgd-mas-tightening-supports-stronger-singapore-dollar-commerzbank-202604141702 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 17:02:00 Z
[3] Dow Jones Industrial Average climbs as soft PPI, Iran ceasefire hopes lift sentiment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-industrial-average-climbs-as-soft-ppi-iran-ceasefire-hopes-lift-sentiment-202604141658 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:58:33 Z
[4] GBP/USD nears 1.3590 as softer US PPI sinks Dollar demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-nears-13590-as-softer-us-ppi-sinks-dollar-demand-202604141534 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:51:51 Z
[5] USD/JPY tumbles as softer US data and BoJ hawkish tilt collide with shifting war sentiment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-tumbles-as-softer-us-data-and-boj-hawkish-tilt-collide-with-shifting-war-sentiment-202604141640 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:40:05 Z
[6] Asia FX: Mixed implications of Strait of Hormuz risk - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asia-fx-mixed-implications-of-strait-of-hormuz-risk-mufg-202604141637 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:37:33 Z
[7] ECB's President Lagarde: We have to be data dependent URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-president-lagarde-we-have-to-be-data-dependent-202604141633 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:33:30 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled