Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-14 12:30:42
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +2.1% (5d) | Alignment: 67% (2 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.458 above 0.45 but falling — institutional buying fading |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +5.7B — dealers long gamma, suppressing downside vol |
| Credit | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | HY OAS 2.95% moderate |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 53% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.83 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | VIX 18.4 sub-20 in contango — market pricing low risk |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Expanding but rotation Defensive — mixed signal |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 82/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX falling to 0.458 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 53% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.4 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.19)
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $92.22 ▼ (5d: -2.3% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $95.26 ▼ | Spread: $3.04 ▲
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9600/gal ▼
- Heating Oil: $3.4700/gal ▼
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $39.24/bbl ▼ (Wide (strong refining margins))
- XLE (Energy Sector): $55.79 ▲
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.45 ▲
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.458, GEX +5.7B, HY OAS 2.95%, breadth 53%.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.61% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $39.49/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $123.9 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $693.61 | 50 SMA $674.13 | 200 SMA $664.76 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $678.78
- QQQ: $626.75 | 50 SMA $600.40 | 200 SMA $597.08 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $605.68
- IWM: $268.95 | 50 SMA $256.42 | 200 SMA $244.28 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $246.0
- VIX: 18.35 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.272%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $693.61 ▲ | 67.92 | 87.4 | $678.78 | Bullish | 0.32 |
| QQQ | $626.75 ▲ | 65.23 | 84.0 | $605.68 | Bullish | 0.14 |
| IWM | $268.95 ▲ | 70.32 | 86.2 | $246.00 | Bullish | 0.29 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.35 ▼ | 35.29 | 75.7 | $10.50 | Bearish | 3.22 |
| TNX | 42.72 | 46.34 | 76.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $442.44 ▲ | 67.73 | 54.0 | $418.50 | Bullish | 0.68 |
| DXY | 98.11 ▼ | 34.45 ▼ | 48.4 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $71.94 ▲ | 63.64 | 27.8 | $64.81 | Bullish | 0.58 |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.42
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 ▲ (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,252,895 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,130,137 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.95 ▲ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- Gamma Call Wall: $695 | Put Wall: $665 (Spot: $693.61)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.95% (Benign)
- BBB Spread: 1.04%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.458
- DIX Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.67B
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,113B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $75,375 ▼ (Neutral)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.0%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 72.4% | 21/29 |
| Financials | 71.6% | 48/67 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 20/28 |
| Communication Services | 65.0% | 13/20 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 14/24 |
| Industrials | 55.2% | 37/67 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 35/65 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 10/19 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.8% | 26/58 |
| Health Care | 39.6% | 21/53 |
| Consumer Staples | 14.7% | 5/34 |
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.912 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.916 | severe |
| SPY / TNX | -0.932 | severe |
| SPY / Oil | -0.834 | severe |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.27%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.66 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.11 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.43 ▲ (Defensive)
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 82.0% | Cut 13.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.61% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.38%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.15%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100
Seasonality
- Current Month: April
- Average Return: +2.25%
- Median Return: +1.57%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- PPI(MoM)(Mar): 0.5% vs Est. 1.1% (MISS) | Prev: 0.5%
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 39.30 | Prev: 26.00
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: ⏳ Pending
- Core PPI(MoM)(Mar): 0.1% vs Est. 0.4% (MISS) | Prev: 0.3%
Earnings:
- JPM: EPS Est. $5.51 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- TSLA (2026-04-22): EPS Est. $0.38 (↓6.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.07 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.61 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.62 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.94 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.76 (↓3.4% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] What Strait?: US stocks soar as Oil market sells off on US-Iran negotiations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/what-strait-us-stocks-soar-as-oil-market-sells-off-on-us-iran-negotiations-202604141627 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:27:38 Z
[2] USD/CAD pares losses as Oil slides below $90 on US-Iran talks optimism URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-pares-losses-as-oil-slides-below-90-on-us-iran-talks-optimism-202604141626 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:26:34 Z
[3] Bessent says Fed should wait for Warsh before cutting rates now URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bessent-says-fed-should-wait-for-warsh-before-cutting-rates-now-202604141611 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:11:41 Z
[4] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD nears 1.3590 as softer US PPI sinks Dollar demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-nears-13590-as-softer-us-ppi-sinks-dollar-demand-202604141607 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:07:31 Z
[5] United States 52-Week Bill Auction up to 3.56% from previous 3.485% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-52-week-bill-auction-up-to-356-from-previous-3485-202604141552 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 15:52:17 Z
[6] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD jumps near $79 as Dollar weakens on softer US inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-jumps-near-79-as-dollar-weakens-on-softer-us-inflation-202604141548 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 15:48:23 Z
[7] GBP/USD nears 1.3590 as softer US PPI sinks Dollar demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-nears-13590-as-softer-us-ppi-sinks-dollar-demand-202604141534 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 15:34:48 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] IRGC intelligence arrests eight in western Iran for alleged opposition links Time: 2026-04-14T16:25:05.918Z
[2] Two Iran-linked ships reverse course after US Hormuz blockade - BBC Verify Time: 2026-04-14T16:18:36.047Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled