Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-14 10:45:39
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.7% (5d) | Alignment: 67% (2 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.458 above 0.45 but falling — institutional buying fading |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +5.7B — dealers long gamma, suppressing downside vol |
| Credit | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | HY OAS 2.95% moderate |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 52% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.84 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | VIX 18.1 sub-20 in contango — market pricing low risk |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Expanding but rotation Defensive — mixed signal |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 82/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.458; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.19)
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $93.32 ▼ (5d: -1.1% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $95.79 ▼ | Spread: $2.47 ▲
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $39.40/bbl ▲ (Wide (strong refining margins))
- XLE (Energy Sector): $55.83
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.64 ▲
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.458, GEX +5.7B, HY OAS 2.95%, breadth 52%.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.61% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $39.15/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $124.32 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
What Changed
- Health score ↑ 9 points (73 → 82)
Key Levels
- SPY: $690.91 | 50 SMA $674.13 | 200 SMA $664.76 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $678.99
- QQQ: $623.31 | 50 SMA $600.40 | 200 SMA $597.08 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $605.72
- IWM: $268.50 | 50 SMA $256.42 | 200 SMA $244.28 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $246.0
- VIX: 18.07 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.279%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $690.91 ▲ | 67.92 | 87.4 | $678.99 | Bullish | 0.32 |
| QQQ | $623.31 ▼ | 65.23 | 84.0 | $605.72 | Bullish | 0.19 |
| IWM | $268.50 ▲ | 70.32 | 86.2 | $246.00 | Bullish | 0.32 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.07 ▲ | 35.29 | 75.7 | $10.50 | Bearish | 3.14 |
| TNX | 42.79 | 46.34 | 76.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $440.58 ▼ | 67.73 | 54.0 | $416.16 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| DXY | 98.00 ▼ | 33.59 ▼ | 48.9 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $71.44 ▼ | 63.64 | 27.8 | $67.87 | Bullish | 0.62 |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.42
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 ▼ (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,215,929 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,035,914 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.85 ▲ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- Gamma Call Wall: $690 | Put Wall: $665 (Spot: $690.91)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.95% (Benign)
- BBB Spread: 1.04%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.458
- DIX Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.67B
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,113B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $75,348 ▼ (Neutral)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 52.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.6%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 20/28 |
| Utilities | 70.0% | 21/30 |
| Financials | 69.1% | 47/68 |
| Communication Services | 65.0% | 13/20 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 14/24 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 38/67 |
| Technology | 55.4% | 36/65 |
| Energy | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| Health Care | 40.7% | 22/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 40.7% | 24/59 |
| Consumer Staples | 14.7% | 5/34 |
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.912 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.915 | severe |
| SPY / TNX | -0.933 | severe |
| SPY / Oil | -0.843 | severe |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.28%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.66 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.00 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▼
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.43 ▼ (Defensive)
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 82.0% | Cut 13.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.61% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.38%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.15%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100
Seasonality
- Current Month: April
- Average Return: +2.23%
- Median Return: +1.57%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- PPI(MoM)(Mar): 0.5% vs Est. 1.1% (MISS) | Prev: 0.5%
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 39.30 | Prev: 26.00
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: ⏳ Pending
- Core PPI(MoM)(Mar): 0.1% vs Est. 0.4% (MISS) | Prev: 0.3%
Earnings:
- JPM: EPS Est. $5.51 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- TSLA (2026-04-22): EPS Est. $0.38 (↓6.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.07 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.61 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.62 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.94 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.76 (↓3.4% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[BREAKING] [1] Bessent says Iran negotiating with US through authorized interlocutors Time: 2026-04-14T14:40:15.210Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled