Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-14 10:01:12
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.5% (5d) | Alignment: 50% (0 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.458 above 0.45 but falling — institutional buying fading |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | — | GEX +5.7B — dealers long gamma, suppressing downside vol |
| Credit | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | HY OAS 2.94% moderate |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 49% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | — | SPY/Oil -0.84 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | 🟢 BULLISH | — | VIX 18.1 sub-20 in contango — market pricing low risk |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Expanding but rotation Defensive — mixed signal |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 79/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 79 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS — breadth at 49% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.458; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.19)
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $95.26 ▼ (5d: +0.9% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $97.35 ▼ | Spread: $2.09 ▲
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $39.56/bbl ▲ (Wide (strong refining margins))
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.15 ▲
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.58 ▼
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.61% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $95.57 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $39.25/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $126.8 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to CAUTIOUS.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
What Changed
- Regime changed from RISK-ON to CAUTIOUS
- Health score ↑ 6 points (73 → 79)
- Breadth crossed below 50.0% (majority bullish): 50.40 → 48.90
- Breadth signal: Moderately Bullish → Mixed
Key Levels
- SPY: $689.58 | 50 SMA $674.13 | 200 SMA $664.76 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $680.73
- QQQ: $621.75 | 50 SMA $600.40 | 200 SMA $597.08 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $605.89
- IWM: $267.43 | 50 SMA $256.42 | 200 SMA $244.28 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $246.0
- VIX: 18.12 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.293%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $689.58 ▼ | 67.92 | 87.4 | $680.73 | Bullish | 0.38 |
| QQQ | $621.75 ▼ | 65.23 | 84.0 | $605.89 | Bullish | 0.24 |
| IWM | $267.43 ▲ | 70.32 | 86.2 | $246.00 | Bullish | 0.41 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.12 ▼ | 35.29 | 75.7 | $10.50 | Bearish | 2.91 |
| TNX | 42.93 ▼ | 46.34 | 76.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $440.97 ▲ | 67.73 | 54.0 | $416.21 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| DXY | 98.03 ▼ | 33.80 ▼ | 48.8 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $71.00 ▲ | 63.64 | 27.8 | $64.79 | Bullish | 0.59 |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.42
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 544,565 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 454,293 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.83 ▲ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- Gamma Call Wall: $690 | Put Wall: $665 (Spot: $689.58)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (Benign)
- BBB Spread: 1.04%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.458
- DIX Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.67B
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,113B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $75,490 ▲ (Neutral)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 48.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 56.1%
- Breadth Signal: Mixed
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 491
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 65.0% | 13/20 |
| Financials | 63.2% | 43/68 |
| Utilities | 62.1% | 18/29 |
| Materials | 60.9% | 14/23 |
| Real Estate | 60.0% | 15/25 |
| Industrials | 56.2% | 36/64 |
| Technology | 52.3% | 34/65 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 36.2% | 21/58 |
| Health Care | 31.5% | 17/54 |
| Consumer Staples | 17.6% | 6/34 |
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.912 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.915 | severe |
| SPY / TNX | -0.933 | severe |
| SPY / Oil | -0.843 | severe |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.29% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.68 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.03 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▼
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.42 ▼ (Defensive)
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 82.0% | Cut 13.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.61% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.38%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.15%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100
Seasonality
- Current Month: April
- Average Return: +2.21%
- Median Return: +1.57%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- PPI(MoM)(Mar): 0.5% vs Est. 1.1% (MISS) | Prev: 0.5%
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 39.30 | Prev: 26.00
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: ⏳ Pending
- Core PPI(MoM)(Mar): 0.1% vs Est. 0.4% (MISS) | Prev: 0.3%
Earnings:
- JPM: EPS Est. $5.51 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- TSLA (2026-04-22): EPS Est. $0.38 (↓6.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.07 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.61 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.62 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.94 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.76 (↓3.4% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iran war escalation could trigger global recession, IMF says Time: 2026-04-14T13:51:16.665Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled