Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-13 22:00:16
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.0% (5d) | Alignment: 50% (0 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.458 above 0.45 but falling — institutional buying fading |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | — | GEX +5.7B — dealers long gamma, suppressing downside vol |
| Credit | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | HY OAS 2.94% moderate |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 50% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | — | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk, margin pressure |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | — | SPY/Oil -0.84 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | 🟢 BULLISH | — | VIX 19.1 sub-20 in contango — market pricing low risk |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Expanding but rotation Defensive — mixed signal |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 73/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy shock in progress (WTI at $97, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.458; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.18)
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $96.84 (5d: -14.3%)
- Brent Crude: $97.44 | Spread: $0.60
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $37.42/bbl (Wide (strong refining margins))
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.11
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.68
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.458, GEX +5.7B, HY OAS 2.94%, breadth 50%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.61% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.84 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $37.42/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK with crack spread at $37.42/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $127.15 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $686.61 | 50 SMA $674.29 | 200 SMA $664.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $673.66
- QQQ: $618.79 | 50 SMA $600.64 | 200 SMA $596.69 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $600.97
- IWM: $265.73 | 50 SMA $256.38 | 200 SMA $244.02 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $255.95
- VIX: 19.12 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.297%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $686.61 | 67.98 | 88.0 | $673.66 | Bullish | 0.23 |
| QQQ | $618.79 | 65.09 | 86.8 | $600.97 | Bullish | 0.25 |
| IWM | $265.73 | 71.29 | 94.8 | $255.95 | Bullish | 0.41 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.12 | 34.54 | 82.1 | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.29 |
| TNX | 42.97 | 43.17 | 73.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $436.97 | 62.39 | 54.9 | $420.98 | Neutral | 0.91 |
| DXY | 98.37 | 43.54 | 53.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.53 | 67.63 | 27.9 | $56.47 | Bullish | 0.62 |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.42
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,317,011
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,036,594
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.22 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- Gamma Call Wall: $686 | Put Wall: $675 (Spot: $686.61)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (Benign)
- BBB Spread: 1.04%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.458
- DIX Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.67B
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,113B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $74,389 ▲ (Neutral)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.0%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 83.3% | 25/30 |
| Energy | 70.0% | 14/20 |
| Financials | 67.6% | 46/68 |
| Materials | 62.5% | 15/24 |
| Real Estate | 60.7% | 17/28 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| Industrials | 52.2% | 35/67 |
| Technology | 47.7% | 31/65 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 33.9% | 20/59 |
| Health Care | 29.6% | 16/54 |
| Consumer Staples | 20.6% | 7/34 |
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.912 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.915 | severe |
| SPY / TNX | -0.933 | severe |
| SPY / Oil | -0.843 | severe |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.30%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.69 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.37
- Growth vs Value: 0.90
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.39 (Defensive)
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.61% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.38%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.15%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100
Seasonality
- Current Month: April
- Average Return: +2.20%
- Median Return: +1.57%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(Mar): 3.98 vs Est. 4.07 (MISS) | Prev: 4.13
- Existing Home Sales(MoM)(Mar): -3.6% | Prev: 2.7%
Earnings:
- GS: EPS Est. $13.76 (↓3.4% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-04-14): EPS Est. $5.51 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-04-22): EPS Est. $0.38 (↓6.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.07 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.61 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.62 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.94 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] Australian Dollar edges lower despite reinforced hawkish RBA bias URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-edges-lower-despite-reinforced-hawkish-rba-bias-202604140119 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 01:19:38 Z
[2] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8593 vs. 6.8657 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-68593-vs-68657-previous-202604140116 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 01:16:21 Z
[3] RBA's Hauser: Focused on preventing rise in inflation expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbas-hauser-focused-on-preventing-rise-in-inflation-expectations-202604140058 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:58:46 Z
[4] US Vice President Vance: No deal yet, but framework for grand deal exists URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-vice-president-vance-no-deal-yet-but-framework-for-grand-deal-exists-202604140044 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:44:29 Z
[5] Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence down to -12.5% in April from previous 1.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-westpac-consumer-confidence-down-to-125-in-april-from-previous-12-202604140035 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:35:57 Z
[6] Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.3%, above expectations (-0.5%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-gross-domestic-product-qoq-came-in-at-03-above-expectations-05-in-1q-202604140005 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:05:16 Z
[7] Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 4.6% below forecasts (5.4%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-gross-domestic-product-yoy-came-in-at-46-below-forecasts-54-in-1q-202604140000 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:07 Z
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] Asian stocks rise as US signals continued engagement with Iran Time: 2026-04-14T01:41:30.984Z
[2] Kremlin says offer to accept Iran's enriched uranium still on table Time: 2026-04-14T01:08:18.551Z
[3] Iran hands death sentences to four more January protesters - HRANA Time: 2026-04-14T00:39:53.327Z
[4] Iran offered five-year enrichment suspension in talks with US - NYT Time: 2026-04-14T00:11:00.000Z
[5] Hezbollah leader urges Lebanon to cancel Israel meeting in US Time: 2026-04-13T23:50:23.614Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled