Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-13 16:02:24
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.5% (5d) | Alignment: 60% (3 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.476 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +5.1B — dealers long gamma, suppressing downside vol |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.94% benign and not rising — no credit stress |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 50% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk, margin pressure |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.84 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | VIX 19.1 sub-20 in contango — market pricing low risk |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 34 — moderate, watching |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Expanding but rotation Defensive — mixed signal |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 73/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy shock in progress (WTI at $98, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.476; GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.18)
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $97.86 ▼ (5d: -13.4% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $98.22 ▼ | Spread: $0.36 ▼
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6200/gal ▼
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $37.38/bbl ▼ (Wide (strong refining margins))
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.13 ▲
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.68 ▲
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.58% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $97.96 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $37.42/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK with crack spread at $37.42/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $128.37 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
What Changed
- Regime changed from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON
- Breadth crossed above 50.0% (majority bullish): 44.50 → 50.40
- Breadth signal: Mixed → Moderately Bullish
Key Levels
- SPY: $685.84 | 50 SMA $674.29 | 200 SMA $664.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $673.84
- QQQ: $617.24 | 50 SMA $600.64 | 200 SMA $596.69 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $596.99
- IWM: $264.91 | 50 SMA $256.38 | 200 SMA $244.02 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $255.94
- VIX: 19.10 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.297%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $685.84 ▲ | 67.98 | 88.0 | $673.84 | Bullish | 0.24 |
| QQQ | $617.24 ▲ | 65.09 | 86.8 | $596.99 | Bullish | 0.24 |
| IWM | $264.91 ▲ | 71.29 | 94.8 | $255.94 | Bullish | 0.43 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.10 ▼ | 34.54 | 82.1 | $10.50 | Bearish | 2.19 |
| TNX | 42.97 | 43.17 | 73.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $435.38 ▲ | 62.39 | 54.9 | $412.84 | Neutral | 0.94 |
| DXY | 98.39 | 43.70 | 53.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.33 ▲ | 67.63 | 27.9 | $56.47 | Neutral | 0.71 |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.15
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,291,760 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,999,071 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.21 ▼ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- Gamma Call Wall: $686 | Put Wall: $675 (Spot: $685.84)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (Benign)
- BBB Spread: 1.04%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
- DIX Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.11B
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,113B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,385 ▲ (Neutral)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.4% ▲
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 56.9% ▲
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish ◆
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 83.3% | 25/30 |
| Energy | 70.0% | 14/20 |
| Financials | 67.6% | 46/68 |
| Materials | 65.2% | 15/23 |
| Real Estate | 60.7% | 17/28 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| Industrials | 52.2% | 35/67 |
| Technology | 47.7% | 31/65 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 33.9% | 20/59 |
| Health Care | 29.6% | 16/54 |
| Consumer Staples | 20.6% | 7/34 |
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.914 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.915 | severe |
| SPY / TNX | -0.935 | severe |
| SPY / Oil | -0.843 | severe |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.30%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.69 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.39
- Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.40 ▲ (Defensive)
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.58% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.36%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.14%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 34/100
Seasonality
- Current Month: April
- Average Return: +2.20% ▲
- Median Return: +1.57%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(Mar): 3.98 vs Est. 4.07 (MISS) | Prev: 4.13
- Existing Home Sales(MoM)(Mar): -3.6% | Prev: 2.7%
Earnings:
- GS: EPS Est. $13.76 (↓3.4% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-04-14): EPS Est. $5.51 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-04-22): EPS Est. $0.38 (↓6.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.07 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.61 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.62 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.94 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] US weighs second in-person talks with Iran before ceasefire expires - CNN Time: 2026-04-13T19:50:46.081Z
[2] Senator Graham opposes 20-year enrichment moratorium in potential Iran deal Time: 2026-04-13T19:39:25.686Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled