Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-13 12:30:45
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 66/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy shock in progress (WTI at $102, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.476; GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.5 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.18)
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (5d) | Alignment: 50% (0 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.476 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | — | GEX +5.1B — dealers long gamma, suppressing downside vol |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | — | HY OAS 2.94% benign and not rising — no credit stress |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 42% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | — | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk, margin pressure |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | — | SPY/Oil -0.84 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | 🟢 BULLISH | — | VIX 19.5 sub-20 in contango — market pricing low risk |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 34 — moderate, watching |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Expanding but rotation Defensive — mixed signal |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.58% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $102.97 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $37.03/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK with crack spread at $37.03/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $132.68 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $681.33 | 50 SMA $674.29 | 200 SMA $664.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $676.06
- QQQ: $613.50 | 50 SMA $600.64 | 200 SMA $596.69 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $591.15
- IWM: $263.18 | 50 SMA $256.38 | 200 SMA $244.02 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $245.99
- VIX: 19.47 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.315%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $681.33 ▲ | 67.98 | 88.0 | $676.06 | Neutral | 0.73 |
| QQQ | $613.50 ▲ | 65.09 | 86.8 | $591.15 | Bullish | 0.53 |
| IWM | $263.18 ▲ | 71.29 | 94.8 | $245.99 | Bullish | 0.69 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.47 ▼ | 34.54 | 82.1 | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.75 |
| TNX | 43.15 ▼ | 43.17 | 73.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $434.42 ▲ | 62.39 | 54.9 | $412.83 | Neutral | 1.00 |
| DXY | 98.75 ▼ | 47.72 ▼ | 53.6 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.98 ▲ | 67.63 | 27.9 | $61.89 | Neutral | 0.76 |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.15
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,771,701 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,330,546 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.32 ▼ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- Gamma Call Wall: $685 | Put Wall: $675 (Spot: $681.33)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (Benign)
- BBB Spread: 1.04%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
- DIX Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.11B
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,113B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $72,157 ▲ (Neutral)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 42.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 54.4%
- Breadth Signal: Mixed
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 80.0% | 16/20 |
| Utilities | 80.0% | 24/30 |
| Real Estate | 53.6% | 15/28 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 12/24 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 9/20 |
| Industrials | 44.8% | 30/67 |
| Technology | 44.6% | 29/65 |
| Financials | 41.2% | 28/68 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 30.5% | 18/59 |
| Health Care | 22.2% | 12/54 |
| Consumer Staples | 20.6% | 7/34 |
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.914 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.915 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.935 | warning |
| SPY / Oil | -0.843 | warning |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $102.30 ▼ (5d: -9.4% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $101.60 ▼ | Spread: $-0.70 ▲
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0900/gal ▼
- Heating Oil: $3.7900/gal ▼
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $37.28/bbl ▲ (Wide (strong refining margins))
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.33 ▼
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.71 ▲
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.31% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.75 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.39 ▲ (Defensive)
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 82.0% | Cut 13.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.58% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.36%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.14%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 34/100
Seasonality
- Current Month: April
- Average Return: +2.14%
- Median Return: +1.57%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(Mar): 3.98 vs Est. 4.07 (MISS) | Prev: 4.13
- Existing Home Sales(MoM)(Mar): -3.6% | Prev: 2.7%
Earnings:
- GS: EPS Est. $13.76 (↓3.4% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-04-14): EPS Est. $5.51 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-04-22): EPS Est. $0.38 (↓6.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.07 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.61 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.62 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.94 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] Silver price declines as failed US-Iran talks lift Dollar, Oil-fueled inflation worries URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-declines-as-failed-us-iran-talks-lift-dollar-oil-fueled-inflation-worries-202604131619 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 16:19:15 Z
[2] Gold holds firm but lacks momentum as US-Iran tensions and Fed outlook weigh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-firm-but-lacks-momentum-as-us-iran-tensions-and-fed-outlook-weigh-202604131321 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 16:11:09 Z
[3] Germany: Recovery delayed by energy shock - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-recovery-delayed-by-energy-shock-deutsche-bank-202604131610 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 16:10:57 Z
[4] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD holds near 1.3460 as Iran talks disappoint traders URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-holds-near-13460-as-iran-talks-disappoint-traders-202604131610 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 16:10:37 Z
[5] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bearish risks rise below 0.8000 as momentum indicators turn negative URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-bearish-risks-rise-below-08000-as-momentum-indicators-turn-negative-202604131607 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 16:07:13 Z
[6] GBP/USD holds near 1.3460 as Iran talks disappoint traders URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-holds-near-13460-as-iran-talks-disappoint-traders-202604131604 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 16:04:50 Z
[7] USD/JPY holds onto light gain as Hormuz closure fuels safe-haven demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-holds-onto-light-gain-as-hormuz-closure-fuels-safe-haven-demand-202604131550 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 15:50:37 Z
[8] WTI Oil surges on renewed Iran tensions as US blockade threat stokes supply fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-surges-on-renewed-iran-tensions-as-us-blockade-threat-stokes-supply-fears-202604131532 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 15:32:22 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Prolonged Hormuz crisis could trigger global agrifood catastrophe, UN says Time: 2026-04-13T16:22:32.596Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled