Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-13 10:15:58
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 68/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy shock in progress (WTI at $101, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.476; GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 20.1 (elevated-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.17)
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (5d) | Alignment: 50% (0 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.476 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | — | GEX +5.1B — dealers long gamma, suppressing downside vol |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | — | HY OAS 2.94% benign and not rising — no credit stress |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 44% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | — | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk, margin pressure |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | — | SPY/Oil -0.84 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 20.1 moderate |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 34 — moderate, watching |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Expanding but rotation Defensive — mixed signal |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.58% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $103.10 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $36.34/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK with crack spread at $36.34/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $133.0505 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
What Changed
- VIX crossed above 20 (elevated): 19.23 → 20.15
Key Levels
- SPY: $678.86 | 50 SMA $674.29 | 200 SMA $664.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $676.07
- QQQ: $610.61 | 50 SMA $600.64 | 200 SMA $596.69 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $591.17
- IWM: $261.71 | 50 SMA $256.38 | 200 SMA $244.02 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $245.99
- VIX: 20.15 — 20-30 (elevated)
- 10Y Yield: 4.317%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $678.86 ▼ | 67.98 | 88.0 | $676.07 | Neutral | 0.99 |
| QQQ | $610.61 ▼ | 65.09 | 86.8 | $591.17 | Neutral | 0.75 |
| IWM | $261.71 ▼ | 71.29 | 94.8 | $245.99 | Neutral | 0.97 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 20.15 ▲ | 34.54 | 82.1 | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.48 |
| TNX | 43.17 ▲ | 43.17 | 73.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $433.93 ▼ | 62.39 | 54.9 | $412.91 | Neutral | 1.01 |
| DXY | 98.83 ▲ | 48.66 ▲ | 53.9 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.16 ▼ | 67.63 | 27.9 | $56.47 | Neutral | 0.79 |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.15
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 642,697 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 859,592 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.34 ▼ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- Gamma Call Wall: $677 | Put Wall: $675 (Spot: $678.86)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.94% ▲ (Benign)
- BBB Spread: 1.04% ▼
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
- DIX Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.11B
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,113B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $71,591 ▲ (Neutral)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 43.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 52.6%
- Breadth Signal: Mixed
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 476
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 85.0% | 17/20 |
| Utilities | 82.8% | 24/29 |
| Real Estate | 68.0% | 17/25 |
| Materials | 54.5% | 12/22 |
| Industrials | 50.8% | 30/59 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 9/20 |
| Financials | 42.2% | 27/64 |
| Technology | 40.6% | 26/64 |
| Consumer Staples | 29.4% | 10/34 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 27.6% | 16/58 |
| Health Care | 21.2% | 11/52 |
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.914 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.915 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.935 | warning |
| SPY / Oil | -0.843 | warning |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $101.30 ▼ (5d: -10.3% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $100.18 ▼ | Spread: $-1.12 ▲
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0400/gal ▼
- Heating Oil: $3.7600/gal ▼
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $36.46/bbl ▲ (Wide (strong refining margins))
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.15 ▼
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.81 ▼
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.32% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.72 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.83 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.37 ▲ (Defensive)
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 82.0% | Cut 13.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.58% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.36%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.14%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 34/100
Seasonality
- Current Month: April
- Average Return: +2.13%
- Median Return: +1.57%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(Mar): 3.98 vs Est. 4.07 (MISS) | Prev: 4.13
- Existing Home Sales(MoM)(Mar): -3.6% | Prev: 2.7%
Earnings:
- GS: EPS Est. $16.39 (↑3.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-04-14): EPS Est. $5.51 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-04-22): EPS Est. $0.38 (↓6.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.07 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.61 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.62 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.94 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] Qatar tells Iran waterways must not be used as leverage Time: 2026-04-13T14:07:49.060Z
[2] Pakistan PM says efforts ongoing to resolve US-Iran conflict Time: 2026-04-13T14:05:07.232Z
[BREAKING] [3] Maritime access restrictions imposed on Iranian ports, UKMTO says Time: 2026-04-13T13:57:33.548Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled