Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-13 04:00:20
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 70/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 70 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS — breadth at 44% and energy regime SHOCK keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show energy shock in progress (WTI at $97, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.476; GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.2 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.19)
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (5d) | Alignment: 50% (0 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.476 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | — | GEX +5.1B — dealers long gamma, suppressing downside vol |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | — | HY OAS 2.90% benign and not rising — no credit stress |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 44% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | — | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk, margin pressure |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | — | SPY/Oil -0.84 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | 🟢 BULLISH | — | VIX 19.2 sub-20 in contango — market pricing low risk |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 34 — moderate, watching |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Expanding but rotation Defensive — mixed signal |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.58% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.57 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $38.95/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK with crack spread at $38.95/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $124.57 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $680.65 | 50 SMA $674.29 | 200 SMA $664.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $662.88
- QQQ: $612.31 | 50 SMA $600.64 | 200 SMA $596.69 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $591.13
- IWM: $261.82 | 50 SMA $256.38 | 200 SMA $244.02 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $255.84
- VIX: 19.23 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.317%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $680.65 | 67.98 | 88.0 | $662.88 | Bullish | 0.58 |
| QQQ | $612.31 | 65.09 | 86.8 | $591.13 | Bullish | 0.48 |
| IWM | $261.82 | 71.29 | 94.8 | $255.84 | Neutral | 0.98 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.23 | 34.54 | 82.1 | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.35 |
| TNX | 43.17 | 43.17 | 73.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $436.78 | 62.39 | 54.9 | $413.67 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| DXY | 98.65 | 39.75 | 56.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.83 | 67.63 | 27.9 | $60.50 | Bullish | 0.61 |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.15
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.18 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- Gamma Call Wall: $658 | Put Wall: $660 (Spot: $680.65)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.90% (Benign)
- BBB Spread: 1.05%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
- DIX Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.11B
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,113B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $70,831 ▼ (Neutral)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 44.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 54.0%
- Breadth Signal: Mixed
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 86.7% | 26/30 |
| Energy | 80.0% | 16/20 |
| Real Estate | 64.3% | 18/28 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 14/24 |
| Industrials | 50.7% | 34/67 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 9/20 |
| Technology | 41.5% | 27/65 |
| Financials | 36.8% | 25/68 |
| Consumer Staples | 32.4% | 11/34 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 30.5% | 18/59 |
| Health Care | 24.1% | 13/54 |
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.914 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.915 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.935 | warning |
| SPY / Oil | -0.843 | warning |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $96.57 (5d: -14.1%)
- Brent Crude: $95.20 | Spread: $-1.37
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9600/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $38.95/bbl (Wide (strong refining margins))
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.94
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.77
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.32%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.72 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.65
- Growth vs Value: 0.90
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.37 (Defensive)
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 82.0% | Cut 13.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.58% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.36%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.14%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 34/100
Seasonality
- Current Month: April
- Average Return: +2.14%
- Median Return: +1.57%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 330.293 | Prev: 327.460
Earnings:
- GS: EPS Est. $16.39 (↑3.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-04-14): EPS Est. $5.51 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-04-22): EPS Est. $0.39 (↓3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.09 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.61 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.62 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.94 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (15):
[1] USD/INR gains strongly as US-Iran failed negotiations lift oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-starts-the-week-strongly-as-us-iran-failed-talks-boost-oil-prices-202604130543 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 07:10:13 Z
[2] EUR/USD holds near 1.1700 despite the deteriorated market sentiment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-holds-near-11700-despite-the-deteriorated-market-sentiment-202604130710 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 07:10:03 Z
[3] Macroeconomics: Stagflation risks at IMF and World Bank - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/macroeconomics-stagflation-risks-at-imf-and-world-bank-dbs-202604130709 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 07:09:11 Z
[4] Gold remains depressed as inflation worries fuel hawkish Fed bets and support USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-bulls-seem-hesitant-as-failed-us-iran-talks-and-hawkish-fed-bets-support-usd-202604130428 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 07:04:33 Z
[5] Turkey Current Account Balance registered at $7.501B above expectations ($-7.5B) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-current-account-balance-registered-at-7501b-above-expectations-75b-in-february-202604130701 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 07:01:37 Z
[6] Turkey Current Account Balance came in at $-7.501B, below expectations ($-7.5B) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-current-account-balance-came-in-at-7501b-below-expectations-75b-in-february-202604130701 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 07:01:20 Z
[7] BoJ's Ueda: Rising oil prices worsen Japan's trade URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bojs-ueda-rising-oil-prices-worsen-japans-trade-202604130655 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 06:55:56 Z
[8] Brent: Supply disruption risk supports higher prices - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-supply-disruption-risk-supports-higher-prices-mufg-202604130648 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 06:48:11 Z
[9] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Stays near 0.5850 after rebounding from levels near nine-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-stays-near-05850-after-rebounding-from-levels-near-nine-day-ema-202604130644 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 06:44:37 Z
[10] Equities: Risk-off open expected on US‑Iran setback - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-risk-off-open-expected-on-us-iran-setback-danske-bank-202604130635 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 06:35:09 Z
[11] Asian stocks drop as US-Iran peace talks break, US closes Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stocks-drop-as-us-iran-peace-talks-break-us-closes-hormuz-202604130630 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 06:30:47 Z
[12] EUR/USD: Market pricing de-escalation hopes - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-market-pricing-de-escalation-hopes-commerzbank-202604130619 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 06:19:07 Z
[13] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds majority losses near $74 as fears of hawkish Fed outlook revives URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-holds-majority-losses-near-74-as-fears-of-hawkish-fed-outlook-revives-202604130613 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 06:13:01 Z
[14] EUR/CAD caps near 1.6200 as Euro struggles due to risk-off mood URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-cad-caps-near-16200-as-euro-struggles-due-to-risk-off-mood-202604130557 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 05:57:41 Z
[15] Pound Sterling bounces off low; GBP/USD lacks follow-through beyond 1.3400 on firmer USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-bounces-off-low-gbp-usd-lacks-follow-through-beyond-13400-on-firmer-usd-202604130525 Published: Mon, 13 Apr 2026 05:25:21 Z
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] China urges calm over Hormuz, says talks can ease tensions Time: 2026-04-13T07:39:27.965Z
[2] Iran to impose permanent mechanism to control Hormuz, military spokesman says Time: 2026-04-13T07:20:13.130Z
[3] US naval blockade plan shows lack of strategy, Iran MP says Time: 2026-04-13T06:53:41.794Z
[4] ASEAN urges US, Iran to keep talks going and uphold ceasefire Time: 2026-04-13T06:45:38.573Z
[5] Saudi crude sales to China set to halve in May - Bloomberg Time: 2026-04-13T06:05:00.829Z
[6] Iran executed at least 1,639 people in 2025, NGOs say Time: 2026-04-13T05:53:06.047Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled