Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-11 20:00:21

Market Status

Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 89/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 89 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS — breadth at 44% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX falling to 0.476 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.2 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.17)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $124.57 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $680.65 | 50 SMA $674.29 | 200 SMA $664.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $662.88
QQQ: $612.31 | 50 SMA $600.64 | 200 SMA $596.69 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $591.13
IWM: $261.82 | 50 SMA $256.38 | 200 SMA $244.02 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $255.84
VIX: 19.23 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.317%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	GEX Sent	PCR
SPY	$680.65	67.98	88.0	$662.88	Bullish	0.58
QQQ	$612.31	65.09	86.8	$591.13	Bullish	0.48
IWM	$261.82	71.29	94.8	$255.84	Neutral	0.98

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	GEX Sent	PCR
VIX	19.23	34.54	82.1	$10.50	Bearish	1.35
TNX	43.17	43.17	73.5	-	-	-
GLD	$436.78	62.39	54.9	$413.67	Neutral	0.83
DXY	98.65	39.75	56.6	-	-	-
SLV	$68.83	67.63	27.9	$60.50	Bullish	0.61

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.15
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
0DTE Call Volume: 0
0DTE Put Volume: 0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.18 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
Gamma Call Wall: $685 | Put Wall: $670 (Spot: $679.46)

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.90% (Benign)
BBB Spread: 1.05%
2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
DIX Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.11B

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
Liquidity Regime: Expanding
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B
Global Net Liquidity: $17,113B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $72,979 ▼ (Neutral)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 44.5%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 54.0%
Breadth Signal: Mixed
Total Stocks Analyzed: 501

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Utilities	86.7%	26/30
Energy	80.0%	16/20
Real Estate	64.3%	18/28
Materials	58.3%	14/24
Industrials	50.7%	34/67
Communication Services	45.0%	9/20
Technology	41.5%	27/65
Financials	36.8%	25/68
Consumer Staples	32.4%	11/34
Consumer Discretionary	30.5%	18/59
Health Care	24.1%	13/54

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	N/A	N/A
SPY / DXY	N/A	N/A
SPY / TNX	N/A	N/A

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.32%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.72 (Normal)
DXY: 98.65
Growth vs Value: 0.90
Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.37 (Defensive)
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut N/A

Seasonality

Current Month: April
Average Return: +2.14%
Median Return: +1.57%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 330.293 | Prev: 327.460

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

GS (2026-04-13): EPS Est. $16.39 (↑3.5% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-04-14): EPS Est. $5.51 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-04-22): EPS Est. $0.39 (↓3.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.09 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.61 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.62 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.94 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[1] Senior IRGC officials arrive in Pakistan for âconsultationâ - CNN Time: 2026-04-11T23:49:55.572Z

[2] Pakistan proposes joint patrols in Strait of Hormuz during Iran-US talks Time: 2026-04-11T23:42:35.767Z

[3] US-Iran talks continue into early hours in Islamabad - White House Time: 2026-04-11T23:35:18.477Z

[4] Pezeshkian cites Israel strikes in Lebanon as tension rises during Iran-US talks Time: 2026-04-11T23:19:58.276Z

[5] Iran-US negotiations to resume Sunday in Islamabad - report Time: 2026-04-11T22:50:59.823Z

[6] US did not reach understanding in latest round of talks - Fars News Time: 2026-04-11T22:45:06.031Z

[7] USâIran talks to continue on Sunday - Iran state TV Time: 2026-04-11T22:41:16.699Z

[8] US demands 400kg uranium exit, zero enrichment and Hormuz control Time: 2026-04-11T22:23:50.937Z

[9] Iran says talks will continue despite âremaining differencesâ Time: 2026-04-11T22:18:32.904Z

[10] Iran-US talks conclude after 14 hours in Islamabad Time: 2026-04-11T22:13:39.321Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled