Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-10 21:57:47
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 89/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 89 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS — breadth at 44% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.476 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.2 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $123.9039 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $680.65 | 50 SMA $674.61 | 200 SMA $664.00 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $675.76
- QQQ: $612.31 | 50 SMA $601.08 | 200 SMA $596.34 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $596.35
- IWM: $261.82 | 50 SMA $256.42 | 200 SMA $243.78 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $261.5
- VIX: 19.23 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.317%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $680.65 ▲ | 60.40 | 71.7 | $675.76 | Bullish | 0.52 |
| QQQ | $612.31 ▲ | 58.08 | 77.6 | $596.35 | Bullish | 0.48 |
| IWM | $261.82 ▲ | 64.45 | 94.7 | $261.50 | Neutral | 1.06 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.23 | 41.50 | 82.2 | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.35 |
| TNX | 43.17 | 50.96 | 79.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $436.78 ▲ | 55.32 | 54.9 | $413.06 | Bullish | 0.38 |
| DXY | 98.70 | 40.15 | 54.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.83 ▲ | 55.44 | 28.1 | $61.81 | Bullish | 0.47 |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.15
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0 ▼
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0 ▼
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.18 (No 0DTE Expiry Today ◆)
- Gamma Call Wall: $680 | Put Wall: $670 (Spot: $679.46)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.90% (Benign)
- BBB Spread: 1.05%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% ▼ (Normal (Steepening))
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.476 ▼
- DIX Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.11B ▼
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,113B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $72,977 ▲ (Neutral)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 44.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 53.8%
- Breadth Signal: Mixed
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 86.7% | 26/30 |
| Energy | 80.0% | 16/20 |
| Real Estate | 64.3% | 18/28 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 14/24 |
| Industrials | 50.7% | 34/67 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 9/20 |
| Technology | 41.5% | 27/65 |
| Financials | 36.8% | 25/68 |
| Consumer Staples | 32.4% | 11/34 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 30.5% | 18/59 |
| Health Care | 24.1% | 13/54 |
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | N/A | N/A |
| SPY / DXY | N/A | N/A |
| SPY / TNX | N/A | N/A |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.32%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.72 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.70
- Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.37 ▲ (Defensive)
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut N/A
Seasonality
- Current Month: April
- Average Return: +2.14%
- Median Return: +1.57%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 330.293 | Prev: 327.460
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GS (2026-04-13): EPS Est. $16.35 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-04-14): EPS Est. $5.49 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-04-22): EPS Est. $0.39 (↓3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.09 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.60 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.61 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.94 (↓0.8% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] You cannot bomb your way to regime change, Panetta says Time: 2026-04-11T00:36:07.195Z
[2] Oil posts biggest weekly drop since war began - NBC Time: 2026-04-11T00:15:50.216Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled