← Archive

2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-10 10:15:32

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Mixed (45.1% >50d, 55.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,945B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.484 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 74 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 2.94% (Benign) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $17,113B | BTC: $72,771 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.15%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $681.23 ▲ 60.40 71.7 $675.48 Bullish 0.46
QQQ $612.07 ▲ 58.08 77.6 $596.72 Bullish 0.54
IWM $261.82 ▼ 64.45 94.7 $261.39 Neutral 0.88

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 18.93 ▼ 41.50 82.2 $10.50 Bearish 1.71
TNX 43.07 ▼ 50.96 79.0 - - -
GLD $439.17 ▲ 55.32 54.9 $416.85 Neutral 0.71
DXY 98.60 ▼ 39.34 ▼ 54.3 ▲ - - -
SLV $69.22 ▲ 55.44 28.1 $61.92 Bullish 0.55

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.31% ▼
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 ▼ (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.60 ▼
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▼
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.36 ▼ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.01
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 542,570 ▲
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 734,623 ▲
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.35 ▼ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (Benign)
  • BBB Spread: 1.05%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 45.1% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Mixed

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,113B
  • BTC-USD: $72,771 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.484
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.64B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.15%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.49 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.35 (+3.9% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13 (EPS Est: $16.35)
  • JPM: 2026-04-14 (EPS Est: $5.49)
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22 (EPS Est: $0.39)
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29 (EPS Est: $4.09)
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29 (EPS Est: $2.60)
  • META: 2026-04-29 (EPS Est: $6.61)
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30 (EPS Est: $1.94)
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30 (EPS Est: $1.65)
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20 (EPS Est: $1.78)
  • WMT: 2026-05-21 (EPS Est: $0.66)

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 330.293 (Period: 2026-03-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (14):

[1] United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 46.1 (April) vs previous 51.7 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-michigan-consumer-expectations-index-461-april-vs-previous-517-202604101400 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 14:00:16 Z

[2] United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.8% (April) vs 3.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-uom-1-year-consumer-inflation-expectations-48-april-vs-38-202604101400 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 14:00:11 Z

[3] United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 47.6, below expectations (52) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-registered-at-476-below-expectations-52-in-april-202604101400 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 14:00:03 Z

[4] United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation increased to 3.4% in April from previous 3.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-uom-5-year-consumer-inflation-expectation-increased-to-34-in-april-from-previous-32-202604101400 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 14:00:03 Z

[5] United States Factory Orders (MoM) came in at 0%, above expectations (-0.2%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-factory-orders-mom-came-in-at-0-above-expectations-02-in-february-202604101400 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 14:00:02 Z

[6] Oil: Motor fuel demand and behavior shifts – UBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-motor-fuel-demand-and-behavior-shifts-ubs-202604101353 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 13:53:56 Z

[7] WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: We expect a rapid reduction in energy prices once the Strait of Hormuz opens URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wh-sr-adviser-hassett-we-expect-a-rapid-reduction-in-energy-prices-once-the-strait-of-hormuz-opens-202604101346 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 13:46:44 Z

[8] Canada: Labour outlook stabilizing with gradual improvement – RBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-labour-outlook-stabilizing-with-gradual-improvement-rbc-202604101343 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 13:43:06 Z

[9] EUR/USD: Upside risk within 1.1680–1.1780 band – Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-upside-risk-within-11680-11780-band-scotiabank-202604101334 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 13:34:27 Z

[10] USD/JPY: Rebound capped by 159.60 with downside risk to 157.50 – UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-rebound-capped-by-15960-with-downside-risk-to-15750-uob-202604101328 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 13:28:14 Z

[11] Gold holds steady as US CPI rises in March, Fed outlook caps upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-steady-in-a-narrow-range-ahead-of-us-cpi-data-202604101205 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 13:27:25 Z

[12] Salesforce fills gap and tags major support URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/salesforce-fills-gap-and-tags-major-support-202604101321 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 13:21:46 Z

[13] IVZ is sitting right at the edge of a nine-month topping pattern: $21.86 is the number to watch URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ivz-is-sitting-right-at-the-edge-of-a-nine-month-topping-pattern-2186-is-the-number-to-watch-202604101318 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 13:18:38 Z

[14] Euro: Hungary vote seen modestly supportive – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-hungary-vote-seen-modestly-supportive-rabobank-202604101316 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 13:16:45 Z

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] US negotiators to ask Iran to release American detainees - Washington Post Time: 2026-04-10T14:06:31.353Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled