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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-10 09:36:14

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Mixed ◆ (48.6% ▼ >50d, 56.1% ▼ >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,945B (Expanding ◆)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.484 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 74 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 2.94% (Benign) | 2s10s: 0.51% (N/A)
  • Global Liquidity: $17,113B ◆ | BTC: $72,214 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.16%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $680.80 ▼ 60.40 71.7 $675.25 Bullish 0.50
QQQ $612.28 ▼ 58.08 77.6 $596.38 Bullish 0.52
IWM $261.82 ▼ 64.45 94.7 $252.89 Neutral 0.92

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 19.07 ▲ 41.50 82.2 $10.50 Bearish 1.68
TNX 43.01 50.96 79.0 - - -
GLD $437.81 ▼ 55.32 54.9 $416.43 Neutral 0.71
DXY 98.60 ▼ 39.37 ▼ 54.3 ▲ - - -
SLV $68.92 ▼ 55.44 28.1 $56.15 Bullish 0.52

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.30%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.60 ▼
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.36 ▼ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.01
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 87,309 ▲
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 115,513 ▲
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.32 ▲ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging) ◆)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (Benign)
  • BBB Spread: 1.05%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (N/A)

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 48.6% ▼ (of 500)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 56.1% ▼
  • Breadth Signal: Mixed ◆

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding ◆
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,113B ◆
  • BTC-USD: $72,214 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.484
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.64B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.16%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.49 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.35 (+3.9% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13 (EPS Est: $16.35)
  • JPM: 2026-04-14 (EPS Est: $5.49)
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22 (EPS Est: $0.39)
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29 (EPS Est: $4.09)
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29 (EPS Est: $2.60)
  • META: 2026-04-29 (EPS Est: $6.61)
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30 (EPS Est: $1.94)
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30 (EPS Est: $1.65)
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20 (EPS Est: $1.78)
  • WMT: 2026-05-21 (EPS Est: $0.66)

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): Scheduled today (awaiting release)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled