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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-10 09:15:39

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bullish (50.1% >50d, 57.0% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.455 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 74 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 2.94% (Benign ◆) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening) ◆)
  • Global Liquidity: N/A | BTC: $72,230 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.15%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $681.17 ▲ 60.40 71.7 $674.82 Bullish 0.58
QQQ $611.73 ▲ 58.08 77.6 $596.34 Neutral 0.74
IWM $262.47 ▲ 64.45 94.7 $261.37 Neutral 0.92

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 19.13 ▼ 41.50 82.2 $10.50 Bearish 1.38
TNX 43.03 50.96 79.0 - - -
GLD $438.21 ▲ 55.32 54.9 $416.56 Neutral 0.73
DXY 98.68 ▼ 39.99 ▼ 54.1 ▲ - - -
SLV $68.83 ▲ 55.44 28.1 $56.48 Bullish 0.59

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.30%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 ▼ (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.68 ▼
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 ▲ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.01
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.38 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (Benign ◆)
  • BBB Spread: 1.05%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening) ◆)

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.1% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $N/AB
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
  • Liquidity Regime: N/A
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A
  • BTC-USD: $72,230 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.35B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.15%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.49 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.35 (+3.9% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 330.293 (Period: 2026-03-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 21.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (19):

[1] NZD: Hawkish pricing seen as demanding – OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-hawkish-pricing-seen-as-demanding-ocbc-202604101305 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 13:05:02 Z

[2] Poland: Neutral NBP stance supports stable Zloty – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/poland-neutral-nbp-stance-supports-stable-zloty-ing-202604101255 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:55:22 Z

[3] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls eye breakout above 214.00-215.00 resistance URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-bulls-eye-breakout-above-21400-21500-resistance-202604101252 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:52:05 Z

[4] Hungary: Election seen pivotal for EU trajectory – Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungary-election-seen-pivotal-for-eu-trajectory-danske-bank-202604101246 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:46:16 Z

[5] Breaking: US CPI inflation jumps to 3.3% in March, as forecast URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-inflation-set-to-jump-sharply-in-march-driven-by-higher-energy-prices-202604100400 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:36:42 Z

[6] Canada: Unemployment Rate held steady at 6.7% in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-unemployment-rate-held-steady-at-67-in-march-202604101235 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:35:51 Z

[7] MXN: Dovish Banxico and depreciation outlook – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mxn-dovish-banxico-and-depreciation-outlook-commerzbank-202604101235 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:35:05 Z

[8] United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a up to 334.165 in March from previous 333.51 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-consumer-price-index-core-sa-up-to-334165-in-march-from-previous-33351-202604101231 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:31:40 Z

[9] Germany Current Account n.s.a. rose from previous €17.1B to €22B in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-current-account-nsa-rose-from-previous-eu171b-to-eu22b-in-february-202604101230 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:30:59 Z

[10] United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.9%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-consumer-price-index-mom-meets-expectations-09-in-march-202604101230 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:30:05 Z

[11] United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-consumer-price-index-ex-food-energy-mom-came-in-at-02-below-expectations-03-in-march-202604101230 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:30:05 Z

[12] United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) below forecasts (330.41) in March: Actual (330.21) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-consumer-price-index-nsa-mom-below-forecasts-33041-in-march-actual-33021-202604101230 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:30:04 Z

[13] United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (3.3%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-consumer-price-index-yoy-meets-forecasts-33-in-march-202604101230 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:30:04 Z

[14] United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) registered at 2.6%, below expectations (2.7%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-consumer-price-index-ex-food-energy-yoy-registered-at-26-below-expectations-27-in-march-202604101230 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:30:04 Z

[15] Canada Net Change in Employment came in at 14.1K, below expectations (15K) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-net-change-in-employment-came-in-at-141k-below-expectations-15k-in-march-202604101230 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:30:03 Z

[16] Canada Unemployment Rate below forecasts (6.8%) in March: Actual (6.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-unemployment-rate-below-forecasts-68-in-march-actual-67-202604101230 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:30:03 Z

[17] Canada Participation Rate remains unchanged at 64.9% in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-participation-rate-remains-unchanged-at-649-in-march-202604101230 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:30:02 Z

[18] India: Outlook stays subdued on external risks – Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-outlook-stays-subdued-on-external-risks-standard-chartered-202604101226 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:26:02 Z

[19] EUR/JPY extends gains on Ukraine peace hopes, nears YTD highs at 186.88  URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-extends-gains-on-ukraine-peace-hopes-nears-ytd-highs-at-18688-202604101219 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:19:15 Z

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled