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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-10 08:30:56

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bullish (50.1% >50d, 57.0% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A ◆)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.455 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 74 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 2.94% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: N/A | BTC: $72,060 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.15%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $681.47 ▲ 60.40 ▲ 71.7 ▲ $674.82 Bullish 0.58
QQQ $612.00 ▲ 58.08 ▲ 77.6 ▲ $596.34 Neutral 0.74
IWM $262.99 ▲ 64.45 ▼ 94.7 ▲ $261.37 Neutral 0.92

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 19.08 ▼ 41.50 ▼ 82.2 ▲ $10.50 Bearish 1.38
TNX 42.77 ▼ 50.96 ▼ 79.0 ▲ - - -
GLD $438.48 ▲ 55.32 ▲ 54.9 ▼ $416.56 Neutral 0.73
DXY 98.73 ▼ 40.44 ▼ 54.0 ▲ - - -
SLV $68.78 ▲ 55.44 ▲ 28.1 ▼ $56.48 Bullish 0.59

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.28% ▼
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.69 ▼ (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.73 ▼
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 ▲ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.01
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0 ▼
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0 ▼
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.38 (No 0DTE Expiry Today ◆)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (N/A)
  • BBB Spread: 1.05%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.1% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $N/AB
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $N/AB
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
  • Liquidity Regime: N/A ◆
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$0B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A
  • BTC-USD: $72,060 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.35B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.15%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.49 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.35 (+3.9% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 21.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (12):

[1] DXY: Shipping risk, inflation path and Fed easing – BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dxy-shipping-risk-inflation-path-and-fed-easing-bbh-202604101205 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:05:37 Z

[2] Gold holds steady in a narrow range ahead of US CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-steady-in-a-narrow-range-ahead-of-us-cpi-data-202604101205 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:05:21 Z

[3] Brazil IPCA Inflation registered at 0.88% above expectations (0.77%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-ipca-inflation-registered-at-088-above-expectations-077-in-march-202604101200 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:00:04 Z

[4] Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -1.3%, below expectations (-0.7%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-industrial-output-yoy-came-in-at-13-below-expectations-07-in-february-202604101200 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:00:04 Z

[5] CAD: Labour data expected to stay soft – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cad-labour-data-expected-to-stay-soft-td-securities-202604101150 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:50:04 Z

[6] Oil: Physical tightness and supply shocks reshape pricing – BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-physical-tightness-and-supply-shocks-reshape-pricing-bny-202604101146 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:46:44 Z

[7] US CPI set to show prices climbing at fastest pace in nearly two years due to Oil surge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-inflation-set-to-jump-sharply-in-march-driven-by-higher-energy-prices-202604100400 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:45:00 Z

[8] Pound Sterling rises on Russia-Ukraine peace optimism, US-Iran talks awaited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-rises-on-russia-ukraine-peace-optimism-us-iran-talks-awaited-202604101138 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:38:40 Z

[9] USD: Inflation focus into CPI release – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inflation-focus-into-cpi-release-td-securities-202604101134 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:34:31 Z

[10] India FX Reserves, USD increased to $697.12B in March 30 from previous $688.06B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-fx-reserves-usd-increased-to-69712b-in-march-30-from-previous-68806b-202604101130 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:30:13 Z

[11] USD/JPY returns above 159.00 with Iran’s peace deal on tenterhooks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-returns-above-15900-with-irans-peace-deal-on-tenterhooks-202604101127 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:27:16 Z

[12] EUR: Tightening expectations support Euro – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-tightening-expectations-support-euro-ing-202604101122 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:22:34 Z

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Vance heads to Pakistan for Iran peace talks Time: 2026-04-10T12:10:48.611Z

[2] Iran-linked ships dominate Hormuz traffic after ceasefire Time: 2026-04-10T11:42:40.870Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled