Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-10 08:30:56
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bullish (50.1% >50d, 57.0% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A ◆)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.455 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 74 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 2.94% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: N/A | BTC: $72,060 ▼ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +2.15%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $681.47 ▲ | 60.40 ▲ | 71.7 ▲ | $674.82 | Bullish | 0.58 |
| QQQ | $612.00 ▲ | 58.08 ▲ | 77.6 ▲ | $596.34 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| IWM | $262.99 ▲ | 64.45 ▼ | 94.7 ▲ | $261.37 | Neutral | 0.92 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.08 ▼ | 41.50 ▼ | 82.2 ▲ | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.38 |
| TNX | 42.77 ▼ | 50.96 ▼ | 79.0 ▲ | - | - | - |
| GLD | $438.48 ▲ | 55.32 ▲ | 54.9 ▼ | $416.56 | Neutral | 0.73 |
| DXY | 98.73 ▼ | 40.44 ▼ | 54.0 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.78 ▲ | 55.44 ▲ | 28.1 ▼ | $56.48 | Bullish | 0.59 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.28% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.69 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.73 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 ▲ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.01
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0 ▼
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0 ▼
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.38 (No 0DTE Expiry Today ◆)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (N/A)
- BBB Spread: 1.05%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.1% (of 501)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.0%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $N/AB
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $N/AB
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
- Liquidity Regime: N/A ◆
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$0B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A
- BTC-USD: $72,060 ▼ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.35B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +2.15%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.49 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.35 (+3.9% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- GOOGL: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 21.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
FX News Wire
Unread articles (12):
[1] DXY: Shipping risk, inflation path and Fed easing – BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dxy-shipping-risk-inflation-path-and-fed-easing-bbh-202604101205 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:05:37 Z
[2] Gold holds steady in a narrow range ahead of US CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-steady-in-a-narrow-range-ahead-of-us-cpi-data-202604101205 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:05:21 Z
[3] Brazil IPCA Inflation registered at 0.88% above expectations (0.77%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-ipca-inflation-registered-at-088-above-expectations-077-in-march-202604101200 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:00:04 Z
[4] Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -1.3%, below expectations (-0.7%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-industrial-output-yoy-came-in-at-13-below-expectations-07-in-february-202604101200 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 12:00:04 Z
[5] CAD: Labour data expected to stay soft – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cad-labour-data-expected-to-stay-soft-td-securities-202604101150 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:50:04 Z
[6] Oil: Physical tightness and supply shocks reshape pricing – BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-physical-tightness-and-supply-shocks-reshape-pricing-bny-202604101146 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:46:44 Z
[7] US CPI set to show prices climbing at fastest pace in nearly two years due to Oil surge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-inflation-set-to-jump-sharply-in-march-driven-by-higher-energy-prices-202604100400 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:45:00 Z
[8] Pound Sterling rises on Russia-Ukraine peace optimism, US-Iran talks awaited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-rises-on-russia-ukraine-peace-optimism-us-iran-talks-awaited-202604101138 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:38:40 Z
[9] USD: Inflation focus into CPI release – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inflation-focus-into-cpi-release-td-securities-202604101134 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:34:31 Z
[10] India FX Reserves, USD increased to $697.12B in March 30 from previous $688.06B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-fx-reserves-usd-increased-to-69712b-in-march-30-from-previous-68806b-202604101130 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:30:13 Z
[11] USD/JPY returns above 159.00 with Iran’s peace deal on tenterhooks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-returns-above-15900-with-irans-peace-deal-on-tenterhooks-202604101127 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:27:16 Z
[12] EUR: Tightening expectations support Euro – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-tightening-expectations-support-euro-ing-202604101122 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:22:34 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Vance heads to Pakistan for Iran peace talks Time: 2026-04-10T12:10:48.611Z
[2] Iran-linked ships dominate Hormuz traffic after ceasefire Time: 2026-04-10T11:42:40.870Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled