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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-10 08:00:10

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bullish (50.1% >50d, 57.0% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,945B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.455 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 74 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 2.94% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: N/A ◆ | BTC: $72,112 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.15%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $679.64 57.72 38.9 $665.89 Bullish 0.15
QQQ $609.87 55.38 40.7 $594.56 Bullish -359.24
IWM $261.78 64.54 51.0 $252.57 Bullish 0.61

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 19.49 42.31 64.5 $10.50 Bearish 1.50
TNX 42.93 52.47 70.1 - - -
GLD $438.45 45.85 55.2 $416.50 Neutral 0.74
DXY 98.81 45.93 50.2 - - -
SLV $68.39 47.72 28.4 $56.47 Bullish 0.58

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.29%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.81
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.01
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,155,098
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,365,537
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.38 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (N/A)
  • BBB Spread: 1.05%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.1% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A ◆
  • BTC-USD: $72,112 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.35B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.15%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.49 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.35 (+3.9% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 21.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (11):

[1] When is the Canadian employment data and how it could it affect USD/CAD? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/when-is-the-canadian-employment-data-and-how-it-could-it-affect-usd-cad-202604101103 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:03:45 Z

[2] EUR/USD jumps back above 1.1700 amid rumors of a peace deal in Ukraine URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-retreats-to-11685-as-doubts-about-irans-peace-process-grow-202604100718 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 10:45:56 Z

[3] US CPI inflation set to hit near two-year high amid surge in energy prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-inflation-set-to-jump-sharply-in-march-driven-by-higher-energy-prices-202604100400 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 10:45:00 Z

[4] Ukraine nears peace deal with Russia – Bloomberg URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ukraine-nears-peace-deal-with-russia-bloomberg-202604101020 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 10:20:42 Z

[5] USD/INR rises amid caution ahead of US-Iran negotiations on weekend URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-trades-subduedly-ahead-of-us-iran-talks-in-pakistan-202604100538 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 10:11:12 Z

[6] India: Gradual energy pass-through keeps RBI patient – DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gradual-energy-pass-through-keeps-rbi-patient-dbs-202604100956 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:56:23 Z

[7] Gold: Slight upside risk with fragile ceasefire – OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-slight-upside-risk-with-fragile-ceasefire-ocbc-202604100949 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:49:45 Z

[8] Fed: Limited inflation shock, delayed cuts – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-limited-inflation-shock-delayed-cuts-commerzbank-202604100940 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:40:28 Z

[9] US: Energy shock set to lift headline CPI – Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-energy-shock-set-to-lift-headline-cpi-deutsche-bank-202604100930 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:30:59 Z

[10] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604100930 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:30:06 Z

[11] ECB: Four rate hikes still baseline despite ceasefire – Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-four-rate-hikes-still-baseline-despite-ceasefire-nordea-202604100921 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:21:27 Z

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Iran says its 10-point plan set as basis for US talks Time: 2026-04-10T11:06:55.342Z

[2] Starmer says UK, US discussed military capabilities for Hormuz shipping Time: 2026-04-10T10:34:35.506Z

[3] Cleric says Iran leader okayed ceasefire but warned it wouldn’t hold Time: 2026-04-10T10:23:57.318Z

[4] Khamenei Jr set Ghalibaf as lead negotiator, lawmaker says Time: 2026-04-10T10:00:34.800Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled