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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-10 06:00:10

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bullish (50.1% >50d, 57.0% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,945B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.455 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 74 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 2.94% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $17,113B | BTC: $71,797 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.15%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $679.64 57.72 38.9 $665.89 Bullish 0.15
QQQ $609.87 55.38 40.7 $594.56 Bullish -359.24
IWM $261.78 64.54 51.0 $252.57 Bullish 0.61

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 19.49 42.31 64.5 $10.50 Bearish 1.50
TNX 42.93 52.47 70.1 - - -
GLD $438.45 45.85 55.2 $416.50 Neutral 0.74
DXY 98.81 45.93 50.2 - - -
SLV $68.39 47.72 28.4 $56.47 Bullish 0.58

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.29%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.81
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.01
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,155,098
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,365,537
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.38 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (N/A)
  • BBB Spread: 1.05%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.1% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,113B
  • BTC-USD: $71,797 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.35B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.15%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.49 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.35 (+3.9% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 21.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (23):

[1] Gold: Constructive longer‑term outlook despite volatility – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-constructive-longer-term-outlook-despite-volatility-ing-202604100905 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:05:44 Z

[2] AUD/USD eases to 0.7060 as optimism about Iran’s truce ebbs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-eases-to-07060-as-optimism-about-irans-truce-ebbs-202604100904 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:04:55 Z

[3] Brent: Geopolitics keep risk premium elevated – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-geopolitics-keep-risk-premium-elevated-rabobank-202604100856 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:56:52 Z

[4] USD/INR gains ahead of US-Iran negotiations on weekend URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-trades-subduedly-ahead-of-us-iran-talks-in-pakistan-202604100538 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:56:32 Z

[5] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD wobbles around $75 in countdown to US-Iran talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-wobbles-around-75-in-countdown-to-us-iran-talks-202604100848 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:48:51 Z

[6] US: War burden and spending power – UBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-war-burden-and-spending-power-ubs-202604100847 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:47:10 Z

[7] AUD/USD: Overdone rally still has room to test 0.7135 – UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-overdone-rally-still-has-room-to-test-07135-uob-202604100827 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:27:09 Z

[8] Gold keeps the red below $4,750 amid firmer USD; US-Iran peace talks and US CPI in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-edges-lower-as-hormuz-risks-fuel-inflation-worries-and-hawkish-fed-bets-before-us-cpi-202604100430 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:26:30 Z

[9] BRL: Hawkish tilt and supported real – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brl-hawkish-tilt-and-supported-real-commerzbank-202604100820 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:20:24 Z

[10] WTI Crude Oil nears $93.00, with the Strait of Hormuz practically closed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-crude-oil-nears-9300-with-the-strait-of-hormuz-practically-closed-202604100816 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:16:50 Z

[11] USD: Inflation and peace risks shape Dollar – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inflation-and-peace-risks-shape-dollar-ing-202604100802 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:02:00 Z

[12] Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-industrial-output-sa-mom-below-forecasts-05-in-february-actual-01-202604100800 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:00:37 Z

[13] Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.5%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-industrial-output-wda-yoy-in-line-with-forecasts-05-in-february-202604100800 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:00:36 Z

[14] US CPI inflation set to reaccelerate in March amid higher energy prices from Iran war URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-inflation-set-to-jump-sharply-in-march-driven-by-higher-energy-prices-202604100400 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:00:00 Z

[15] IDF remains in state of war with Lebanon URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/idf-remains-in-state-of-war-with-lebanon-202604100757 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:57:47 Z

[16] US equities: Outlook-driven earnings season – BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-equities-outlook-driven-earnings-season-bny-202604100747 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:47:46 Z

[17] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Snaps four-day losing streak after attracting bids near 20-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-snaps-four-day-losing-streak-after-attracting-bids-near-20-day-ema-202604100741 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:41:45 Z

[18] AUD/JPY remains subdued near 112.50 due to risk-off mood URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-remains-subdued-near-11250-due-to-risk-off-mood-202604100741 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:41:04 Z

[19] GBP/JPY advances to fresh two-month high, eyes 214.00 as Middle East risks hit JPY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-advances-to-fresh-two-month-high-eyes-21400-as-middle-east-risks-hit-jpy-202604100736 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:36:49 Z

[20] Brent: Supported near 96 as Hormuz traffic stalls – Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-supported-near-96-as-hormuz-traffic-stalls-danske-bank-202604100732 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:32:33 Z

[21] EUR/USD retreats to 1.1685 as doubts about Iran’s peace process grow URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-retreats-to-11685-as-doubts-about-irans-peace-process-grow-202604100718 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:18:00 Z

[22] GBP/USD: Upside risk hinges on 1.3480 close – UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-upside-risk-hinges-on-13480-close-uob-202604100717 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:17:30 Z

[23] CAD: Jobs data and BoC stance guide Loonie – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cad-jobs-data-and-boc-stance-guide-loonie-ing-202604100706 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:06:14 Z

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] UN warns Lebanon faces food crisis as Iran war disrupts supplies Time: 2026-04-10T08:59:14.282Z

[2] Lebanese TV channel says Israeli strikes killed IRGC members in Beirut Time: 2026-04-10T08:46:41.819Z

[3] Lawmaker warns of bank strain as production, exports stall Time: 2026-04-10T08:22:28.841Z

[4] Zelensky says Ukraine downed Iranian drones in multiple countries Time: 2026-04-10T08:08:53.496Z

[5] NetBlocks says Iran blackout enters 42nd day Time: 2026-04-10T07:25:34.628Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled