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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-10 04:00:05

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bullish (50.1% >50d, 57.0% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,945B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.455 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 74 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 2.94% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $17,113B ◆ | BTC: $71,504 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.15%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $679.64 57.72 38.9 $665.89 Bullish 0.15
QQQ $609.87 55.38 40.7 $594.56 Bullish -359.24
IWM $261.78 64.54 51.0 $252.57 Bullish 0.61

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 19.49 42.31 64.5 $10.50 Bearish 1.50
TNX 42.93 52.47 70.1 - - -
GLD $438.45 45.85 55.2 $416.50 Neutral 0.74
DXY 98.81 45.93 50.2 - - -
SLV $68.39 47.72 28.4 $56.47 Bullish 0.58

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.29%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.81
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.01
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,155,098
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,365,537
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.38 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (N/A)
  • BBB Spread: 1.05%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.1% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B ▲ (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,113B ◆
  • BTC-USD: $71,504 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.35B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.15%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.49 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.35 (+3.9% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 21.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (30):

[1] USD/INR rises ahead of US-Iran talks in Pakistan URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-trades-subduedly-ahead-of-us-iran-talks-in-pakistan-202604100538 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:04:51 Z

[2] Asian stocks rise as US-Iran ceasefire eases central banks’ rate hike odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stocks-rise-as-us-iran-ceasefire-eases-central-banks-rate-hike-odds-202604100704 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:04:05 Z

[3] Stock markets soar again as predicted [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/stock-markets-soar-again-as-predicted-202604100701 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:01:49 Z

[4] Austria Industrial Production (YoY) increased to 1.1% in February from previous 0.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-industrial-production-yoy-increased-to-11-in-february-from-previous-03-202604100700 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:23 Z

[5] Gold hangs near daily low as USD ticks higher ahead of US-Iran peace talks, US CPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-edges-lower-as-hormuz-risks-fuel-inflation-worries-and-hawkish-fed-bets-before-us-cpi-202604100430 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:56:04 Z

[6] DXY: Limited haven response to Oil shock – DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dxy-limited-haven-response-to-oil-shock-dbs-202604100656 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:56:01 Z

[7] Japanese Yen drifts lower ahead of US CPI inflation data, US-Iran talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-drifts-lower-ahead-of-us-cpi-inflation-data-us-iran-talks-202604100649 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:49:58 Z

[8] Forex Today: Market volatility eases as focus shifts to US inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-market-volatility-eases-as-focus-shifts-to-us-inflation-data-202604100648 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:48:30 Z

[9] Gold: Rangebound trade before US CPI – DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rangebound-trade-before-us-cpi-dbs-202604100647 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:47:14 Z

[10] Asia FX: Ceasefire bounce faces oil and Fed headwinds – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asia-fx-ceasefire-bounce-faces-oil-and-fed-headwinds-mufg-202604100635 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:35:17 Z

[11] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Recovery hits pause around 0.5870 ahead of US-Iran talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-recovery-hits-pause-around-05870-ahead-of-us-iran-talks-202604100630 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:30:54 Z

[12] EUR/GBP edges up above 0.8700 on shaky markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-edges-up-above-08700-on-shaky-markets-202604100627 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:27:18 Z

[13] Equities: Cyclical rally extends as volatility eases – Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-cyclical-rally-extends-as-volatility-eases-danske-bank-202604100627 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:27:16 Z

[14] Levi strauss' Q1 earnings beat estimates, DTC revenues up 16% Y/Y URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/levi-strauss-q1-earnings-beat-estimates-dtc-revenues-up-16-y-y-202604100618 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:18:35 Z

[15] USD: Oil shock, inflation risks and Fed path – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-oil-shock-inflation-risks-and-fed-path-commerzbank-202604100614 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:14:32 Z

[16] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $76.00 on easing rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-rises-to-near-7600-on-easing-rate-hike-bets-202604100604 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:04:51 Z

[17] Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) increased to 7% in February from previous 1.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-industrial-production-value-yoy-increased-to-7-in-february-from-previous-19-202604100600 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:00:16 Z

[18] Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) rose from previous -5.7% to 5.1% in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-industrial-production-value-mom-rose-from-previous-57-to-51-in-february-202604100600 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:00:14 Z

[19] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (2.8%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-in-line-with-expectations-28-in-march-202604100600 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:00:11 Z

[20] Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (1.1%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-mom-in-line-with-forecasts-11-in-march-202604100600 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:00:09 Z

[21] Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.7%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-yoy-in-line-with-expectations-27-in-march-202604100600 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:00:08 Z

[22] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets expectations (1.2%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-meets-expectations-12-in-march-202604100600 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:00:08 Z

[23] Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY) climbed from previous -3.9% to 1% in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-new-orders-manufacturing-yoy-climbed-from-previous-39-to-1-in-february-202604100600 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:00:03 Z

[24] US CPI inflation set to jump in March, putting an end to gradual two-year decline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-inflation-set-to-jump-sharply-in-march-driven-by-higher-energy-prices-202604100400 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 06:00:00 Z

[25] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD attracts some sellers amid Hormuz risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-attracts-some-sellers-amid-hormuz-risks-202604100558 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 05:58:01 Z

[26] WTI Price Forecast: Declines below $92.00 but holds bullish bias ahead of US–Iran talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-declines-below-9200-but-holds-bullish-bias-ahead-of-us-iran-talks-202604100540 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 05:40:13 Z

[27] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Rally pauses as RSI (14) struggles to extend above 60.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/caud-usd-price-forecast-rally-pauses-as-rsi-14-struggles-to-extend-above-6000-202604100536 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 05:36:20 Z

[28] Pound Sterling remains depressed vs USD; GBP/USD holds above 1.3400 as traders await US CPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-remains-depressed-vs-usd-gbp-usd-holds-above-13400-as-traders-await-us-cpi-202604100531 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 05:31:47 Z

[29] US Dollar Index holds gains near 99.00 ahead of CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-holds-gains-near-9900-ahead-of-cpi-data-202604100513 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 05:13:04 Z

[30] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-steadies-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604100507 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 05:07:01 Z

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Deputy speaker warns negotiators, says trust lies with military not talks Time: 2026-04-10T07:17:21.829Z

[2] MP says Strait of Hormuz ban on US, Israel tankers would last forever Time: 2026-04-10T07:11:06.530Z

[3] MP says Iran kept negotiating even during attack Time: 2026-04-10T07:02:04.362Z

[4] Pakistan to issue visas on arrival for Islamabad Talks attendees, FM says Time: 2026-04-10T07:00:02.495Z

[5] Israel says over 7,500 hospitalized since start of Iran war Time: 2026-04-10T06:58:36.580Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled