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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-10 00:00:12

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bullish (50.1% >50d, 57.0% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,945B (Expanding ◆)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.455 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 74 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 2.94% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $17,113B ◆ | BTC: $71,870 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.15%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $679.64 57.72 38.9 $665.89 Bullish 0.15
QQQ $609.87 55.38 40.7 $594.56 Bullish -359.24
IWM $261.78 64.54 51.0 $252.57 Bullish 0.61

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 19.49 42.31 64.5 $10.50 Bearish 1.50
TNX 42.93 52.47 70.1 - - -
GLD $438.45 45.85 55.2 $416.50 Neutral 0.74
DXY 98.81 45.93 50.2 - - -
SLV $68.39 47.72 28.4 $56.47 Bullish 0.58

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.29%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.81
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.01
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,155,098
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,365,537
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.38 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (N/A)
  • BBB Spread: 1.05%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.1% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding ◆
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,113B ◆
  • BTC-USD: $71,870 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.35B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.15%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.49 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.35 (+3.9% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 21.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (14):

[1] Japanese Yen softens on fragile US‑Iran ceasefire, eyes on US CPI release URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-softens-on-fragile-us-iran-ceasefire-eyes-on-us-cpi-release-202604100234 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 02:34:46 Z

[2] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD consolidates below mid-$75.00s; 200-EMA on H4 holds the key URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-consolidates-below-mid-7500s-200-ema-on-h4-holds-the-key-202604100228 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 02:28:36 Z

[3] Pound Sterling slips as renewed risk aversion lifts US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-slips-as-renewed-risk-aversion-lifts-us-dollar-202604100209 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 02:09:57 Z

[4] Israel’s PM Netanyahu says there is no ceasefire in Lebanon  URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/israel-to-open-direct-talks-with-lebanon-202604100029 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 02:06:08 Z

[5] AUD/JPY flat lines above 112.50, highest since March 18 after Chinese inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-flat-lines-above-11250-highest-since-march-18-after-chinese-inflation-data-202604100152 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 01:52:38 Z

[6] NZD/USD holds losses near 0.5850 on mixed Chinese data, US CPI looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-holds-losses-near-05850-on-mixed-chinese-data-us-cpi-looms-202604100146 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 01:46:39 Z

[7] Australian Dollar holds losses following China CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-holds-losses-following-china-cpi-data-202604100136 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 01:36:43 Z

[8] Breaking: China’s CPI inflation eases to 1.0% YoY in March, vs 1.2% expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/when-are-the-chinas-cpi-ppi-and-how-could-they-affect-aud-usd-202604092329 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 01:35:04 Z

[9] BoJ’s Himino: Don't think Japan’s economy is in stagflation. URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bojs-himino-dont-think-japans-economy-is-in-stagflation-202604100131 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 01:31:27 Z

[10] China Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.2%) in March: Actual (-0.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-consumer-price-index-mom-below-forecasts-02-in-march-actual-07-202604100130 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 01:30:20 Z

[11] China Producer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (0.4%) in March: Actual (0.5%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-producer-price-index-yoy-above-forecasts-04-in-march-actual-05-202604100130 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 01:30:19 Z

[12] China Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1%, below expectations (1.2%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-consumer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-1-below-expectations-12-in-march-202604100130 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 01:30:17 Z

[13] WTI holds steady above $92.00 as Strait of Hormuz remains closed; bulls seem hesitant URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-holds-steady-above-9200-as-strait-of-hormuz-remains-closed-bulls-seem-hesitant-202604100116 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 01:16:19 Z

[14] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8654 vs. 6.8649 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-68654-vs-68649-previous-202604100115 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 01:15:36 Z

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] Iran-linked hacker group says it will pause attacks on US Time: 2026-04-10T03:19:22.895Z

[2] Iran’s $7.8 billion crypto economy grows after ceasefire - WSJ Time: 2026-04-10T02:51:16.025Z

[3] Senator Cruz backs Trump demands on Iran, warns over Hormuz disruption Time: 2026-04-10T02:06:53.380Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled