← Archive

2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-09 22:00:11

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bullish (50.1% >50d, 57.0% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A ◆)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.455 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 74 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 2.94% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: N/A ◆ | BTC: $72,153 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.15%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $679.64 57.72 38.9 $665.89 Bullish 0.15
QQQ $609.87 55.38 40.7 $594.56 Bullish -359.24
IWM $261.78 64.54 51.0 $252.57 Bullish 0.61

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 19.49 42.31 64.5 $10.50 Bearish 1.50
TNX 42.93 52.47 70.1 - - -
GLD $438.45 45.85 55.2 $416.50 Neutral 0.74
DXY 98.81 45.93 50.2 - - -
SLV $68.39 47.72 28.4 $56.47 Bullish 0.58

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.29%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.81
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.01
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,155,098
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,365,537
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.38 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (N/A)
  • BBB Spread: 1.05%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.1% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $N/AB
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
  • Liquidity Regime: N/A ◆
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A ◆
  • BTC-USD: $72,153 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.35B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.15%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.49 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.35 (+3.9% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 21.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (10):

[1] South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (2.5%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-bok-interest-rate-decision-in-line-with-forecasts-25-202604100059 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:59:52 Z

[2] EUR/USD weakens below 1.1700 as traders brace for US CPI data, US-Iran peace talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-weakens-below-11700-as-traders-brace-for-us-cpi-data-us-iran-peace-talks-202604100050 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:50:48 Z

[3] Israel to open direct talks with Lebanon URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/israel-to-open-direct-talks-with-lebanon-202604100029 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:29:22 Z

[4] Japan plans to release 20-days worth of oil stock from early May onwards URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-plans-to-release-20-days-worth-of-oil-stock-from-early-may-onwards-202604100001 Published: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:01:59 Z

[5] Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.9%) in March: Actual (0.8%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-producer-price-index-mom-below-expectations-09-in-march-actual-08-202604092350 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 23:50:03 Z

[6] Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.6% above expectations (2.4%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-producer-price-index-yoy-registered-at-26-above-expectations-24-in-march-202604092350 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 23:50:03 Z

[7] Japan Bank Lending (YoY) came in at 4.8%, above expectations (4.4%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-bank-lending-yoy-came-in-at-48-above-expectations-44-in-march-202604092350 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 23:50:02 Z

[8] US President Donald Trump: Iran's handling of oil through Strait of Hormuz is not agreement we have URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-donald-trump-irans-handling-of-oil-through-strait-of-hormuz-is-not-agreement-we-have-202604092349 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 23:49:21 Z

[9] When are the China’s CPI, PPI and how could they affect AUD/USD? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/when-are-the-chinas-cpi-ppi-and-how-could-they-affect-aud-usd-202604092329 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 23:29:13 Z

[10] Gold declines to near $4,750 as oil-driven inflation worries weigh ahead of US CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-to-near-4-750-as-oil-driven-inflation-worries-weigh-ahead-of-us-cpi-data-202604092311 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 23:11:50 Z

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] Netanyahu aide says US and Israel in ‘complete agreement’ Time: 2026-04-10T01:36:27.887Z

[2] Bahrain sends UN letter condemning Iran missile and drone attacks Time: 2026-04-10T01:24:30.630Z

[3] Senator Fetterman backs operation Epic Fury as necessary Time: 2026-04-10T01:11:01.316Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled