Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-09 20:00:12

Executive Summary

• Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
• Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
• Credit Signal: Risk ON
• Breadth: Moderately Bullish (50.1% >50d, 57.0% >200d)
• Net Liquidity: $5,945B (Expanding ◆)
• Dark Pool DIX: 0.455 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
• MOVE Index: 74 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
• Credit: HY OAS 2.94% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
• Global Liquidity: $17,113B ◆ | BTC: $71,123 ▼ (Neutral)
• Seasonality (April): Avg +2.15%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Macro Board

Macro Fundamentals

• 10Y Yield: 4.29%
• Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
• DXY: 98.81
• Growth vs Value: 0.90
• Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

• MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.01
• VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
• 0DTE Call Volume: 3,155,098
• 0DTE Put Volume: 4,365,537
• 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.38 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

• HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (N/A)
• BBB Spread: 1.05%
• 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

• Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.1% (of 501)
• Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.0%
• Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish

Fed & Global Liquidity

• Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
• Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
• Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
• US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
• Liquidity Regime: Expanding ◆
• ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B (USD approx)
• BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
• Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,113B ◆
• BTC-USD: $71,123 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

• DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
• GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.35B
• Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

• 20yr Average Return: +2.15%
• 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
• Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
• Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

• AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
• MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
• NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
• GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.0% vs 30d)
• AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
• META: $6.61 (+0.2% vs 30d)
• TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
• WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
• JPM: $5.49 (-0.1% vs 30d)
• GS: $16.35 (+3.9% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

• GS: 2026-04-13
• JPM: 2026-04-14
• TSLA: 2026-04-22
• MSFT: 2026-04-29
• GOOGL: 2026-04-29
• META: 2026-04-29
• AAPL: 2026-04-30
• AMZN: 2026-04-30
• NVDA: 2026-05-20
• WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

• Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
• Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
• Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
• Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
• Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 21.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
• Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (7):

[1] Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.78% above expectations (0.69%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/colombia-consumer-price-index-mom-registered-at-078-above-expectations-069-in-march-202604092301 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 23:01:57 Z

[2] Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 5.56%, above expectations (5.47%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/colombia-consumer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-556-above-expectations-547-in-march-202604092301 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 23:01:57 Z

[3] GBP/USD grinds higher but 1.3450 resistance refuses to budge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-grinds-higher-but-13450-resistance-refuses-to-budge-202604092234 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 22:34:06 Z

[4] New Zealand Business NZ PMI dipped from previous 55 to 53.2 in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-business-nz-pmi-dipped-from-previous-55-to-532-in-march-202604092230 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 22:30:01 Z

[5] AUD/USD climbs as ceasefire rally meets a PCE wall URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-climbs-as-ceasefire-rally-meets-a-pce-wall-202604092207 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 22:07:39 Z

[6] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Head-and-shoulders signals downside risk URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-head-and-shoulders-signals-downside-risk-202604092158 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 21:58:52 Z

[7] NZD/USD surges as geopolitics and Fed stance favor the Kiwi URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-surges-as-geopolitics-and-fed-stance-favor-the-kiwi-202604092138 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 21:38:44 Z

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] UK foreign minister rejects idea of Iran imposing tolls in Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-04-09T23:30:23.358Z

[2] Strait of Hormuz traffic drops to six vessels on Thursday, data shows Time: 2026-04-09T23:16:26.294Z

[3] IRGC can make concessions without regime change, former CENTCOM Chief says Time: 2026-04-09T23:09:18.229Z

[4] Israel says Hezbollah fired missile, sirens sounded across country Time: 2026-04-09T22:36:19.488Z

[5] Trump says Iran doing ‘poor job’ allowing oil through Hormuz Time: 2026-04-09T22:31:44.641Z

[6] White House warns staff on prediction market bets amid Iran war - WSJ Time: 2026-04-09T22:05:36.332Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

• Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
• Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
• Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
• War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
• Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
• Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
• Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled