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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-09 18:01:01

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bullish (50.1% >50d, 57.0% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.455 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 74 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 2.94% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.51% ▲ (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: N/A | BTC: $72,279 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.15%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $679.64 ▼ 57.72 38.9 $665.89 Bullish 0.15
QQQ $609.87 ▼ 55.38 40.7 $594.56 Bullish -359.24
IWM $261.78 ▼ 64.54 51.0 $252.57 Bullish 0.61

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 19.49 42.31 64.5 $10.50 Bearish 1.50
TNX 42.93 52.47 70.1 - - -
GLD $438.45 ▼ 45.85 55.2 $416.50 Neutral 0.74
DXY 98.81 ▼ 45.93 ▼ 50.2 ▲ - - -
SLV $68.39 ▲ 47.72 28.4 $56.47 Bullish 0.58

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.29%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.81 ▼
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▼
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 ▼ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.01
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,155,098
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,365,537
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.38 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (N/A)
  • BBB Spread: 1.05%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.51% ▲ (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.1% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $N/AB
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
  • Liquidity Regime: N/A
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B ▲ (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A
  • BTC-USD: $72,279 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.35B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.15%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.49 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.35 (+3.9% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 21.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (3):

[1] EUR/USD nears 1.1700 as truce optimism and weak Dollar lift pair URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-nears-11700-as-truce-hopes-and-weak-dollar-lift-pair-now-202604092043 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 20:43:31 Z

[2] Indonesia: Index review focus and fiscal strain – DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-index-review-focus-and-fiscal-strain-dbs-202604092026 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 20:26:00 Z

[3] Gold nears $4,800 as softer Dollar and yields lift demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-nears-4-800-as-softer-dollar-and-yields-lift-demand-202604092005 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 20:05:51 Z

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[1] IRGC says it carried out no launches during ceasefire Time: 2026-04-09T21:50:16.087Z

[2] Trump says oil will ‘very quickly’ flow as he rejects WSJ Iran report Time: 2026-04-09T21:32:50.937Z

[3] Iranian delegation arrives in Islamabad for US ceasefire talks - WSJ Time: 2026-04-09T21:23:42.194Z

[4] IRGC Navy says Strait of Hormuz management has entered ‘new phase’ Time: 2026-04-09T21:17:53.978Z

[5] Kuwait says attacks undermine US-Iran ceasefire efforts Time: 2026-04-09T21:16:03.002Z

[6] Trump warns Iran over reports of Strait of Hormuz tanker fees Time: 2026-04-09T21:11:49.130Z

[7] Israel condemns Pakistani defense minister’s ‘annihilation’ remarks Time: 2026-04-09T21:08:17.760Z

[8] Eyewitnesses report explosions, air defense activity in Tehran Time: 2026-04-09T21:07:57.702Z

[9] EU welcomes US-Iran ceasefire, urges end to hostilities in Lebanon Time: 2026-04-09T21:05:01.239Z

[10] US seeks 30 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserve Time: 2026-04-09T21:01:20.220Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled