Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-09 12:45:35
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bullish (50.5% >50d, 55.6% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding ◆)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.455 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 79 | VIX/MOVE: 0.25 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 2.94% (Benign) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,995B ◆ | BTC: $71,887 ▼ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +2.14%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $679.25 ▼ | 57.72 | 38.9 | $665.94 | Bullish | 0.27 |
| QQQ | $608.28 ▼ | 55.38 | 40.7 | $595.21 | Bullish | 0.60 |
| IWM | $262.03 ▲ | 64.54 | 51.0 | $252.34 | Bullish | 0.60 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 20.07 ▲ | 42.31 | 64.5 | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.52 |
| TNX | 42.69 ▲ | 52.47 | 70.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $439.57 ▼ | 45.85 | 55.2 | $416.44 | Neutral | 0.73 |
| DXY | 98.69 ▲ | 44.88 ▲ | 51.3 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.78 ▼ | 47.72 | 28.4 | $56.08 | Bullish | 0.56 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.27% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.68 ▲ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.69 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▼
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 ▼ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,958,833 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,535,684 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.29 ▲ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (Benign)
- BBB Spread: 1.05%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.5% (of 501)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.6%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding ◆
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,995B ◆
- BTC-USD: $71,887 ▼ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.35B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +2.14%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.49 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.35 (+3.9% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- GOOGL: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 21.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled