Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-09 11:15:30
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Mixed (47.0% >50d, 55.0% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding ◆)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.455 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 79 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 2.94% (Benign) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,897B ◆ | BTC: $71,095 ▼ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +2.11%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $675.83 ▲ | 57.72 | 38.9 | $665.95 | Bullish | 0.50 |
| QQQ | $605.91 ▲ | 55.38 | 40.7 | $595.27 | Neutral | 0.81 |
| IWM | $260.10 ▲ | 64.54 | 51.0 | $252.22 | Neutral | 0.84 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 20.58 ▼ | 42.31 | 64.5 | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.30 |
| TNX | 43.07 ▼ | 52.47 | 70.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $438.10 ▲ | 45.85 | 55.2 | $416.47 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| DXY | 98.98 ▼ | 47.48 ▼ | 50.3 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.89 ▲ | 47.72 | 28.4 | $64.76 | Bullish | 0.63 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.31% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.72 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.98 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.34 ▲ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 981,877 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,396,076 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.42 ▲ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (Benign)
- BBB Spread: 1.05%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 47.0% (of 474)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.0%
- Breadth Signal: Mixed
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding ◆
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B ▲ (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B ▲ (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,897B ◆
- BTC-USD: $71,095 ▼ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.35B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +2.11%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.49 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.35 (+3.9% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- GOOGL: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 21.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] European rates: Pricing disconnect persists – BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-rates-pricing-disconnect-persists-bny-202604091457 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 14:57:03 Z
[2] Gold range-bound as US-Iran ceasefire doubts keep markets cautious URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-firm-as-us-iran-ceasefire-doubts-and-us-data-loom-202604091209 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 14:47:29 Z
[3] USD: Dual Fed risks and ceasefire volatility – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-dual-fed-risks-and-ceasefire-volatility-ing-202604091443 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 14:43:34 Z
[4] EUR/USD gains as Dollar weakens, traders eye US CPI and US-Iran negotiations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-gains-as-dollar-weakens-traders-eye-us-cpi-and-us-iran-negotiations-202604091439 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 14:39:06 Z
[5] $Meta Elliott Wave update: Reaction from blue box areas has happened as expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/meta-elliott-wave-update-reaction-from-blue-box-areas-has-happened-as-expected-202604091438 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 14:38:40 Z
[6] GBP/USD: Recovery holds with upside targets – Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-recovery-holds-with-upside-targets-scotiabank-202604091433 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 14:33:58 Z
[7] United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above expectations (41B) in April 3: Actual (50B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-natural-gas-storage-change-above-expectations-41b-in-april-3-actual-50b-202604091430 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 14:30:03 Z
[8] Alphabet (GOOGL) technical update: Bulls regain control [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/alphabet-googl-technical-update-bulls-regain-control-video-202604091421 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 14:21:18 Z
[9] IMF's Georgieva: Central banks should hike rates if inflation expectations de-anchor URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/imfs-georgieva-central-banks-should-hike-rates-if-inflation-expectations-de-anchor-202604091415 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 14:15:24 Z
[10] USD/CNH: Bearish momentum nears key supports – OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cnh-bearish-momentum-nears-key-supports-ocbc-202604091413 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 14:13:37 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled