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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-09 09:15:30

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Mixed (49.1% >50d, 55.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.469 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 79 | VIX/MOVE: 0.27 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 2.94% (Benign) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening) ◆)
  • Global Liquidity: N/A | BTC: $71,117 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.12%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $674.38 ▲ 57.72 38.9 $665.93 Bullish 0.49
QQQ $605.09 ▲ 55.38 40.7 $593.92 Neutral 0.74
IWM $258.71 ▲ 64.54 51.0 $252.28 Neutral 0.86

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 21.15 ▼ 42.31 64.5 $10.50 Neutral 1.08
TNX 42.93 ▼ 52.47 70.1 - - -
GLD $436.88 ▲ 45.85 55.2 $416.45 Neutral 0.83
DXY 98.93 ▼ 46.99 ▼ 50.4 ▲ - - -
SLV $67.45 ▲ 47.72 28.4 $64.74 Bullish 0.69

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.29% ▼
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.93 ▼
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.34 ▼ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.74
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (Benign)
  • BBB Spread: 1.05% ▼
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening) ◆)

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 49.1% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Mixed

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $N/AB
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $N/AB
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
  • Liquidity Regime: N/A
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$0B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$0B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A
  • BTC-USD: $71,117 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.71B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.12%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (22):

[1] Russia Central Bank Reserves $ down to $767.5B from previous $775.4B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-central-bank-reserves-down-to-7675b-from-previous-7754b-202604091301 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 13:01:13 Z

[2] US GDP expands at annual rate of 0.5% in Q4 vs 0.7% expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-gdp-expands-at-annual-rate-of-05-in-q4-vs-07-expected-202604091240 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:40:15 Z

[3] EUR/GBP: Sterling faces downside risks – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-sterling-faces-downside-risks-ing-202604091239 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:39:36 Z

[4] US annual PCE inflation holds steady at 2.8% in February as expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-annual-pce-inflation-holds-steady-at-28-in-february-as-expected-202604091234 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:34:40 Z

[5] US: Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219K last week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-rose-to-219k-last-week-202604091233 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:33:24 Z

[6] United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) meets expectations (2.7%) in 4Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-core-personal-consumption-expenditures-qoq-meets-expectations-27-in-4q-202604091231 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:31:38 Z

[7] United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) meets forecasts (2.9%) in 4Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-consumption-expenditures-prices-qoq-meets-forecasts-29-in-4q-202604091231 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:31:16 Z

[8] United States Personal Spending in line with expectations (0.5%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-spending-in-line-with-expectations-05-in-february-202604091231 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:31:13 Z

[9] United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index below forecasts (3.8%) in 4Q: Actual (3.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-gross-domestic-product-price-index-below-forecasts-38-in-4q-actual-37-202604091231 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:31:01 Z

[10] United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.794M below forecasts (1.84M) in March 27 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-continuing-jobless-claims-came-in-at-1794m-below-forecasts-184m-in-march-27-202604091230 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:30:39 Z

[11] United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized below expectations (0.7%) in 4Q: Actual (0.5%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-gross-domestic-product-annualized-below-expectations-07-in-4q-actual-05-202604091230 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:30:21 Z

[12] United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at -0.1% below forecasts (0.3%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-income-mom-came-in-at-01-below-forecasts-03-in-february-202604091230 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:30:13 Z

[13] United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (3%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-core-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-yoy-meets-expectations-3-in-february-202604091230 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:30:12 Z

[14] United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.8%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-yoy-in-line-with-forecasts-28-in-february-202604091230 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:30:12 Z

[15] United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.4%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-core-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-mom-meets-forecasts-04-in-february-202604091230 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:30:12 Z

[16] United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.4%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-mom-meets-forecasts-04-in-february-202604091230 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:30:12 Z

[17] United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average rose from previous 207.75K to 209.5K in April 3 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-4-week-average-rose-from-previous-20775k-to-2095k-in-april-3-202604091230 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:30:03 Z

[18] United States Initial Jobless Claims above forecasts (210K) in April 3: Actual (219K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-above-forecasts-210k-in-april-3-actual-219k-202604091230 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:30:02 Z

[19] Germany: Industrial outlook stays weak – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-industrial-outlook-stays-weak-commerzbank-202604091227 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:27:27 Z

[20] Iran's President Pezeshkian: Attacks on Lebanon deem ceasefire negotiations meaningless URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-president-pezeshkian-attacks-on-lebanon-deem-ceasefire-negotiations-meaningless-202604091210 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:10:40 Z

[21] NZD: RBNZ warns on upside inflation risks – BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-rbnz-warns-on-upside-inflation-risks-bny-202604091209 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:09:21 Z

[22] Gold steadies as US-Iran ceasefire doubts keeps markets cautious; US data awaited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-firm-as-us-iran-ceasefire-doubts-and-us-data-loom-202604091209 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:09:01 Z

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled