Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-09 08:31:01
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Mixed (49.1% >50d, 55.8% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.469 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 79 | VIX/MOVE: 0.27 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 2.94% ▼ (Benign ◆) | 2s10s: 0.50% (N/A ◆)
- Global Liquidity: $16,897B | BTC: $71,243 ▲ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +2.12%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $674.33 ▼ | 57.72 ▲ | 38.9 ▲ | $665.93 | Bullish | 0.49 |
| QQQ | $604.99 ▼ | 55.38 ▲ | 40.7 ▲ | $593.92 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| IWM | $258.83 ▼ | 64.54 ▲ | 51.0 ▲ | $252.28 | Neutral | 0.86 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 21.22 ▲ | 42.31 ▼ | 64.5 ▲ | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.08 |
| TNX | 42.89 ▼ | 52.47 ▼ | 70.1 ▲ | - | - | - |
| GLD | $435.39 ▲ | 45.85 ▲ | 55.2 ▲ | $416.45 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| DXY | 98.95 ▼ | 47.18 ▲ | 50.3 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.34 ▲ | 47.72 ▲ | 28.4 ▼ | $64.74 | Bullish | 0.69 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.29% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.70 ▲ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.95 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.34 ▼ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0 ▼
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0 ▼
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (No 0DTE Expiry Today ◆)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.94% ▼ (Benign ◆)
- BBB Spread: 1.08%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (N/A ◆)
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 49.1% (of 501)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.8%
- Breadth Signal: Mixed
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,897B
- BTC-USD: $71,243 ▲ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.71B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +2.12%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- GOOGL: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] Mexico Headline Inflation below forecasts (0.88%) in March: Actual (0.86%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-headline-inflation-below-forecasts-088-in-march-actual-086-202604091200 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:00:04 Z
[2] Mexico 12-Month Inflation below expectations (4.61%) in March: Actual (4.59%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-12-month-inflation-below-expectations-461-in-march-actual-459-202604091200 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:00:04 Z
[3] Mexico Core Inflation came in at 0.38% below forecasts (0.4%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-core-inflation-came-in-at-038-below-forecasts-04-in-march-202604091200 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:00:03 Z
[4] UK: February rebound but 2026 outlook soft – Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-february-rebound-but-2026-outlook-soft-deutsche-bank-202604091157 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 11:57:30 Z
[5] Gold: Headline risks keep trade choppy – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-headline-risks-keep-trade-choppy-ing-202604091146 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 11:46:13 Z
[6] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Trades firmly as US-Iran confirm visit to Pakistan for talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-trades-firmly-as-us-iran-confirm-visit-to-pakistan-for-talks-202604091140 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 11:40:45 Z
[7] USD/CHF wavers above 0.7900 amid a shaky ceasefire in Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-wavers-above-07900-amid-a-shaky-ceasefire-in-iran-202604091139 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 11:39:02 Z
[8] JPY: Investor flows signal shifting bond appetite – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/jpy-investor-flows-signal-shifting-bond-appetite-mufg-202604091124 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 11:24:26 Z
[9] PLN: NBP pause extended by Iran shock – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pln-nbp-pause-extended-by-iran-shock-commerzbank-202604091109 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 11:09:38 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] NATO chief says Trump seeks Hormuz security commitments â Reuters Time: 2026-04-09T12:27:09.168Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled