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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-09 08:00:12

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Mixed (49.1% >50d, 55.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.469 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 79 | VIX/MOVE: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.12% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,897B | BTC: $71,149 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.12%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $675.45 43.35 33.2 $657.51 Bullish 0.17
QQQ $605.36 42.24 35.3 $588.58 Bullish 0.70
IWM $260.15 53.10 41.0 $251.04 Bullish 0.37

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 21.04 57.01 56.3 $10.51 Neutral 1.19
TNX 42.91 60.80 64.7 - - -
GLD $434.01 39.82 54.9 $416.39 Bullish 0.66
DXY 99.03 40.82 51.4 - - -
SLV $67.12 39.94 28.8 $64.74 Bullish 0.61

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.29%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.69 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.03
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.34 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.74
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,205,600
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,169,225
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.12% (N/A)
  • BBB Spread: 1.08%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 49.1% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Mixed

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,897B
  • BTC-USD: $71,149 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.71B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.12%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (19):

[1] South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY) dipped from previous -0.7% to -2.8% in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-manufacturing-production-index-yoy-dipped-from-previous-07-to-28-in-february-202604091100 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 11:00:08 Z

[2] USD/INR recovers amid uncertainty ahead of US-Iran talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-recovers-amid-uncertainty-over-us-iran-ceasefire-202604090527 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 10:54:38 Z

[3] Japanese Yen underperforms as oil prices gain ground URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-underperforms-as-oil-prices-gain-ground-202604091043 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 10:43:52 Z

[4] EUR/USD edges up, nearing 1.1700 despite the cautious market mood URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-hesitates-at-11660-with-irans-ceasefire-on-tenterhooks-202604090642 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 10:38:30 Z

[5] NQ 100 bulls aiming at 88.6% Fib at 25,858 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nq-100-bulls-aiming-at-886-fib-at-25-858-202604091034 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 10:34:24 Z

[6] WTI Crude Oil returns above $93.00 as concerns about the ceasefire grow URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-crude-oil-returns-above-9300-as-concerns-about-the-ceasefire-grow-202604091022 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 10:22:00 Z

[7] Fed: FOMC minutes reinforce rate cut path risks – UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-fomc-minutes-reinforce-rate-cut-path-risks-uob-202604091007 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 10:07:41 Z

[8] Portugal Global Trade Balance dipped from previous €-7.457B to €-7.951B in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/portugal-global-trade-balance-dipped-from-previous-eu-7457b-to-eu-7951b-in-february-202604091002 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 10:02:19 Z

[9] Ireland HICP (YoY) meets expectations (3.6%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-hicp-yoy-meets-expectations-36-in-march-202604091000 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 10:00:07 Z

[10] Ireland HICP (MoM) meets expectations (1.8%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-hicp-mom-meets-expectations-18-in-march-202604091000 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 10:00:04 Z

[11] Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM) up to 1.6% in March from previous 0.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-consumer-price-index-mom-up-to-16-in-march-from-previous-09-202604091000 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 10:00:04 Z

[12] Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.6% (March) vs 2.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-consumer-price-index-yoy-36-march-vs-27-202604091000 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 10:00:03 Z

[13] Brent: Volatile swings with ceasefire doubts – Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-volatile-swings-with-ceasefire-doubts-deutsche-bank-202604090954 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 09:54:42 Z

[14] AUD: Preferred G10 relief trade on de-escalation – OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-preferred-g10-relief-trade-on-de-escalation-ocbc-202604090946 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 09:46:52 Z

[15] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD hesitates at $74.00 as risk appetite ebbs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-hesitates-at-7400-as-risk-appetite-ebbs-202604090937 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 09:37:02 Z

[16] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604090930 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 09:30:15 Z

[17] DXY: Range anchored as Fed cut seen – BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dxy-range-anchored-as-fed-cut-seen-bbh-202604090929 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 09:29:15 Z

[18] Eurozone: Inflation impact from energy shock – Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-inflation-impact-from-energy-shock-nordea-202604090913 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 09:13:51 Z

[19] AUD/JPY remains above 111.50 as higher oil prices weigh on Japanese Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-remains-above-11150-as-higher-oil-prices-weigh-on-japanese-yen-202604090913 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 09:13:48 Z

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] Pezeshkian says Lebanon strikes violate ceasefire, warns talks at risk Time: 2026-04-09T11:51:38.356Z

[2] Lebanon must be included in truce, Iran’s parliament speaker says Time: 2026-04-09T11:36:54.173Z

[3] Few vessels cross Hormuz as traffic remains near standstill - Reuters Time: 2026-04-09T11:16:25.111Z

[4] South Korea to send envoy to Iran Time: 2026-04-09T10:46:11.725Z

[5] Russia oil tax revenue surges amid Iran war - Reuters Time: 2026-04-09T10:41:49.699Z

[6] Hormuz must be opened unconditionally, Abu Dhabi oil chief says Time: 2026-04-09T10:11:56.063Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled