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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-09 06:00:11

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Mixed (49.1% >50d, 55.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding ◆)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.469 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 79 | VIX/MOVE: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.12% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,897B ◆ | BTC: $71,537 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.12%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $675.45 43.35 33.2 $657.51 Bullish 0.17
QQQ $605.36 42.24 35.3 $588.58 Bullish 0.70
IWM $260.15 53.10 41.0 $251.04 Bullish 0.37

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 21.04 57.01 56.3 $10.51 Neutral 1.19
TNX 42.91 60.80 64.7 - - -
GLD $434.01 39.82 54.9 $416.39 Bullish 0.66
DXY 99.03 40.82 51.4 - - -
SLV $67.12 39.94 28.8 $64.74 Bullish 0.61

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.29%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.69 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.03
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.34 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.74
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,205,600
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,169,225
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.12% (N/A)
  • BBB Spread: 1.08%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 49.1% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Mixed

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding ◆
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,897B ◆
  • BTC-USD: $71,537 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.71B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.12%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (22):

[1] Greece Industrial Production (YoY) down to 1.8% in February from previous 5.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-industrial-production-yoy-down-to-18-in-february-from-previous-53-202604090859 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:59:52 Z

[2] Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction declined to 3.435% from previous 3.476% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-10-y-obligaciones-auction-declined-to-3435-from-previous-3476-202604090857 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:57:57 Z

[3] Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.404% to 2.734% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-3-y-bond-auction-rose-from-previous-2404-to-2734-202604090857 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:57:32 Z

[4] Oil: Ceasefire fragility tempers price reaction – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-ceasefire-fragility-tempers-price-reaction-rabobank-202604090851 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:51:02 Z

[5] USD/INR recovers strongly amid concerns over Iran ceasefire's sustainability URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-recovers-amid-uncertainty-over-us-iran-ceasefire-202604090527 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:50:38 Z

[6] Spain 5-y Bond Auction up to 3.476% from previous 2.934% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-5-y-bond-auction-up-to-3476-from-previous-2934-202604090848 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:48:21 Z

[7] Pound Sterling ticks lower as investors worry sustainability of Iran ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-ticks-lower-as-investors-worry-sustainability-of-iran-ceasefire-202604090843 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:43:42 Z

[8] EUR/PLN: Zloty recovery with steady NBP – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-pln-zloty-recovery-with-steady-nbp-ing-202604090836 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:36:18 Z

[9] US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up to 99.00 with Iran’s ceasefire into question URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-dxy-picks-up-to-9900-with-irans-ceasefire-into-question-202604090827 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:27:52 Z

[10] Gold extends the range play above $4,700 as traders look to US data for fresh impetus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-remains-depressed-as-skepticism-over-us-iran-truce-supports-usd-202604090342 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:22:01 Z

[11] SEK: Riksbank seen steady despite soft CPI – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sek-riksbank-seen-steady-despite-soft-cpi-commerzbank-202604090816 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:16:28 Z

[12] Dow Jones futures slip due to fading US-Iran ceasefire optimism URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-slip-due-to-fading-us-iran-ceasefire-optimism-202604090813 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:13:09 Z

[13] GBP/USD: Upside risk hinges on 1.3480 close – UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-upside-risk-hinges-on-13480-close-uob-202604090756 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:56:58 Z

[14] Australian Dollar faces pressure as Iran truce uncertainty revives risk-off impulse slightly URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-faces-pressure-as-iran-truce-uncertainty-revives-risk-off-impulse-slightly-202604090746 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:46:58 Z

[15] EUR/NOK: Norges Bank risk for Krone – BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-nok-norges-bank-risk-for-krone-bny-202604090746 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:46:08 Z

[16] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds above 185.00 toward upper ascending channel boundary URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-rebounds-above-18500-toward-upper-ascending-channel-boundary-202604090744 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:44:28 Z

[17] Forex Today: Risk rally loses steam amid shaky US-Iran ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-risk-rally-loses-steam-amid-shaky-us-iran-ceasefire-202604090743 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:43:39 Z

[18] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Pound holds gains with 213.30 high in sight  URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-pound-holds-gains-with-21330-high-in-sight-202604090734 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:34:21 Z

[19] NZD/USD holds gains for fourth day; eyes 200-day SMA near 0.5850 ahead of US data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-holds-gains-for-fourth-day-eyes-200-day-sma-near-05850-ahead-of-us-data-202604090730 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:30:07 Z

[20] Oil: Ceasefire confusion keeps supply risks elevated – Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-ceasefire-confusion-keeps-supply-risks-elevated-danske-bank-202604090728 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:28:47 Z

[21] EUR/USD: Sticky ECB pricing supports Euro – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-sticky-ecb-pricing-supports-euro-ing-202604090712 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:12:50 Z

[22] USD/INR: Range risks and oil sensitivity – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-range-risks-and-oil-sensitivity-mufg-202604090703 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:03:22 Z

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] Iraq says no oil tankers have crossed Hormuz since ceasefire Time: 2026-04-09T09:53:30.236Z

[2] Iran war death toll has risen to more than 3,000, official says Time: 2026-04-09T09:32:52.543Z

[3] Lebanon must be included in Iran-Israel truce, EU’s Kallas says Time: 2026-04-09T09:19:29.228Z

[4] Calls to limit Iran enrichment will fail, nuclear chief says Time: 2026-04-09T08:42:26.201Z

[5] IRGC Quds Force chief says forces made enemies regret actions Time: 2026-04-09T08:30:51.444Z

[6] Iran internet blackout enters 41st day, NetBlocks says Time: 2026-04-09T08:17:45.980Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled