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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-09 04:00:10

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Mixed (49.1% >50d, 55.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A ◆)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.469 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 79 | VIX/MOVE: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.12% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: N/A ◆ | BTC: $70,998 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.12%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $675.45 43.35 33.2 $657.51 Bullish 0.17
QQQ $605.36 42.24 35.3 $588.58 Bullish 0.70
IWM $260.15 53.10 41.0 $251.04 Bullish 0.37

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 21.04 57.01 56.3 $10.51 Neutral 1.19
TNX 42.91 60.80 64.7 - - -
GLD $434.01 39.82 54.9 $416.39 Bullish 0.66
DXY 99.03 40.82 51.4 - - -
SLV $67.12 39.94 28.8 $64.74 Bullish 0.61

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.29%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.69 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.03
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.34 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.74
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,205,600
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,169,225
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.12% (N/A)
  • BBB Spread: 1.08%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 49.1% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Mixed

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $N/AB
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
  • Liquidity Regime: N/A ◆
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A ◆
  • BTC-USD: $70,998 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.71B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.12%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (26):

[1] Austria Trade Balance increased to €-66.7M in January from previous €-1301M URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-trade-balance-increased-to-eu-667m-in-january-from-previous-eu-1301m-202604090700 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:00:07 Z

[2] Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) below forecasts (1.5%) in February: Actual (-1.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-industrial-output-cal-adjusted-yoy-below-forecasts-15-in-february-actual-11-202604090700 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:00:02 Z

[3] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds 20-day EMA in countdown to US-Iran talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-holds-20-day-ema-in-countdown-to-us-iran-talks-202604090657 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:57:24 Z

[4] EUR/GBP posts modest gains above 0.8700 despite weak German Industrial Production data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-posts-modest-gains-above-08700-despite-weak-german-industrial-production-data-202604090655 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:55:18 Z

[5] Gold keeps the red above $4,700 amid ceasefire uncertainty, ahead of US PCE data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-remains-depressed-as-skepticism-over-us-iran-truce-supports-usd-202604090342 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:49:08 Z

[6] AUD/USD: Overdone rally shifts into range phase – UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-overdone-rally-shifts-into-range-phase-uob-202604090647 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:47:22 Z

[7] EUR/USD hesitates at 1.1660 with Iran’s ceasefire on tenterhooks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-hesitates-at-11660-with-irans-ceasefire-on-tenterhooks-202604090642 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:42:20 Z

[8] USD: Focus on Inflation and Fed tensions risk – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-focus-on-inflation-and-fed-tensions-risk-commerzbank-202604090635 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:35:41 Z

[9] Earnings estimates rising for Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG): Will it gain? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/earnings-estimates-rising-for-penguin-solutions-inc-peng-will-it-gain-202604090625 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:25:23 Z

[10] Equities: Relief rally faces ceasefire uncertainty – Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-relief-rally-faces-ceasefire-uncertainty-danske-bank-202604090613 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:13:13 Z

[11] German Industrial Production declines 0.3% MoM in February vs. 0.9% expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/german-industrial-production-declines-03-mom-in-february-vs-09-expected-202604090602 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:02:30 Z

[12] Germany Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) up to 0% in February from previous -1.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-industrial-production-nsa-wda-yoy-up-to-0-in-february-from-previous-12-202604090601 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:01:51 Z

[13] South Africa Net $Gold & Forex Reserve fell from previous $75.835B to $73.187B in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-net-gold-forex-reserve-fell-from-previous-75835b-to-73187b-in-march-202604090600 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:00:50 Z

[14] South Africa Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve fell from previous $81.06B to $77.76B in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-gross-gold-forex-reserve-fell-from-previous-8106b-to-7776b-in-march-202604090600 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:00:18 Z

[15] Germany Trade Balance s.a. came in at €19.8B, above expectations (€18.5B) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-trade-balance-sa-came-in-at-eu198b-above-expectations-eu185b-in-february-202604090600 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:00:13 Z

[16] Germany Imports (MoM) came in at 4.7%, above expectations (4%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-imports-mom-came-in-at-47-above-expectations-4-in-february-202604090600 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:00:07 Z

[17] Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) below expectations (0.9%) in February: Actual (-0.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-industrial-production-sa-mom-below-expectations-09-in-february-actual-03-202604090600 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:00:06 Z

[18] Germany Exports (MoM) above forecasts (1%) in February: Actual (3.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-exports-mom-above-forecasts-1-in-february-actual-36-202604090600 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:00:06 Z

[19] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD surges as Iran truce dents US Dollar broadly URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-surges-as-iran-truce-dents-us-dollar-broadly-202604090555 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:55:23 Z

[20] Iran confirms sending team to Pakistan for negotiations with US URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-confirms-sending-team-to-pakistan-for-negotiations-with-us-202604090553 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:53:30 Z

[21] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades flat around $74 ahead of US-Iran talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-trades-flat-around-74-ahead-of-us-iran-talks-202604090546 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:46:01 Z

[22] WTI holds gains near $92.00 as Strait of Hormuz remains constrained URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-holds-gains-near-9200-as-strait-of-hormuz-remains-constrained-202604090540 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:40:38 Z

[23] Asian stocks trade lower amid fragile Iran ceasefire, Japan’s Nikkei slips URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stocks-trade-lower-amid-fragile-iran-ceasefire-japans-nikkei-slips-202604090540 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:40:12 Z

[24] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Remains below 159.00 as bulls stay cautious amid softer USD demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-remains-below-15900-as-bulls-stay-cautious-amid-softer-usd-demand-202604090537 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:37:28 Z

[25] USD/INR recovers amid uncertainty over US-Iran ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-recovers-amid-uncertainty-over-us-iran-ceasefire-202604090527 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:27:23 Z

[26] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-steadies-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604090505 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:05:17 Z

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Costa Rica designates IRGC, 3 Iran-backed groups as terror organizations Time: 2026-04-09T07:49:05.080Z

[BREAKING] [2] IDF says it killed aide to Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem in Beirut Time: 2026-04-09T07:42:13.064Z

[3] Spain to reopen embassy in Tehran, minister says Time: 2026-04-09T07:18:54.250Z

[4] Islamabad declares two local holidays before US-Iran talks Time: 2026-04-09T06:00:17.111Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled