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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-09 02:00:19

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Mixed (49.1% >50d, 55.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.469 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 79 | VIX/MOVE: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.12% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,897B | BTC: $70,952 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.12%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $675.45 43.35 33.2 $657.51 Bullish 0.17
QQQ $605.36 42.24 35.3 $588.58 Bullish 0.70
IWM $260.15 53.10 41.0 $251.04 Bullish 0.37

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 21.04 57.01 56.3 $10.51 Neutral 1.19
TNX 42.91 60.80 64.7 - - -
GLD $434.01 39.82 54.9 $416.39 Bullish 0.66
DXY 99.03 40.82 51.4 - - -
SLV $67.12 39.94 28.8 $64.74 Bullish 0.61

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.29%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.69 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.03
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.34 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.74
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,205,600
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,169,225
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.12% (N/A)
  • BBB Spread: 1.08%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 49.1% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Mixed

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,897B
  • BTC-USD: $70,952 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.71B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.12%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (18):

[1] Philippines Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-steadies-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604090501 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:01:29 Z

[2] Japan Consumer Confidence Index came in at 33.3 below forecasts (38) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-consumer-confidence-index-came-in-at-333-below-forecasts-38-in-march-202604090500 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:00:14 Z

[3] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-steadies-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604090457 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:57:28 Z

[4] BoJ’s Ueda says Japan's financial conditions remain accommodative URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bojs-ueda-says-japans-financial-conditions-remain-accommodative-202604090457 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:57:22 Z

[5] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-steadies-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604090448 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:48:36 Z

[6] India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-steadies-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604090447 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:47:57 Z

[7] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-steadies-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604090447 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:47:20 Z

[8] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates below 0.7050; remains close to three-week high URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-consolidates-below-07050-remains-close-to-three-week-high-202604090442 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:42:56 Z

[9] Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) meets forecasts (2.7%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/netherlands-the-consumer-price-index-nsa-yoy-meets-forecasts-27-in-march-202604090430 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:30:44 Z

[10] Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume declined to -0.5% in February from previous 0% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/netherlands-the-consumer-spending-volume-declined-to-05-in-february-from-previous-0-202604090430 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:30:10 Z

[11] EUR/JPY advances above 185.00 as fiscal expansion pressures Japanese Yen
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-advances-above-18500-as-fiscal-expansion-pressures-japanese-yen-202604090428 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:28:59 Z

[12] USD/CHF slips to near 0.7900 as US-Iran ceasefire uncertainty prevails URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-slips-to-near-07900-as-us-iran-ceasefire-uncertainty-prevails-202604090420 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:20:18 Z

[13] US President Donald Trump warns of stronger military response if Iran deal fails URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-donald-trump-warns-of-stronger-military-response-if-iran-deal-fails-202604090405 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:05:04 Z

[14] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls await break above 200-SMA/38.2% Fibo. confluence near 1.1670 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-bulls-await-break-above-200-sma-382-fibo-confluence-near-11670-202604090403 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:03:43 Z

[15] Elliott Wave outlook: S&P 500 eyeing new all time high [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/elliott-wave-outlook-sp-500-eyeing-new-all-time-high-video-202604090343 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 03:43:07 Z

[16] Gold remains depressed as skepticism over US-Iran truce supports USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-remains-depressed-as-skepticism-over-us-iran-truce-supports-usd-202604090342 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 03:42:38 Z

[17] US Dollar Index moves little due to renewed safe-haven demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-moves-little-due-to-renewed-safe-haven-demand-202604090328 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 03:28:03 Z

[18] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Strives to hold key 20-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-strives-to-hold-key-20-day-ema-202604090320 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 03:20:46 Z

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Iran negotiators to arrive in Pakistan for US talks on Thursday, envoy says Time: 2026-04-09T05:38:31.666Z

[2] Hormuz shipping must remain toll-free, Britain says Time: 2026-04-09T05:16:00.706Z

[3] Pre-dawn blasts heard in several Iranian cities Time: 2026-04-09T04:47:21.448Z

[BREAKING] [4] US forces to stay in and around Iran until deal holds, Trump says Time: 2026-04-09T04:08:04.799Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled