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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-09 00:00:05

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Mixed (49.1% >50d, 55.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.469 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 79 | VIX/MOVE: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.12% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,897B | BTC: $70,980 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.12%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $675.45 43.35 33.2 $657.51 Bullish 0.17
QQQ $605.36 42.24 35.3 $588.58 Bullish 0.70
IWM $260.15 53.10 41.0 $251.04 Bullish 0.37

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 21.04 57.01 56.3 $10.51 Neutral 1.19
TNX 42.91 60.80 64.7 - - -
GLD $434.01 39.82 54.9 $416.39 Bullish 0.66
DXY 99.03 40.82 51.4 - - -
SLV $67.12 39.94 28.8 $64.74 Bullish 0.61

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.29%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.69 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.03
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.34 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.74
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,205,600
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,169,225
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.12% (N/A)
  • BBB Spread: 1.08%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 49.1% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Mixed

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,897B
  • BTC-USD: $70,980 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.71B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.12%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (9):

[1] NZD/USD gathers strength above 0.5800 on RBNZ hawkish hold URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-gathers-strength-above-05800-on-rbnz-hawkish-hold-202604090227 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 02:27:09 Z

[2] Canadian Dollar slips as USD safe-haven bid offsets oil rebound URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-slips-as-usd-safe-haven-bid-offsets-oil-rebound-202604090222 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 02:22:49 Z

[3] RBNZ’s Breman: New Zealand could see stronger growth if Middle East conflict ends soon URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbnzs-breman-new-zealand-could-see-stronger-growth-if-middle-east-conflict-ends-soon-202604090157 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 01:57:50 Z

[4] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles around $73.50; vulnerable while below 200-EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-struggles-around-7350-vulnerable-while-below-200-ema-202604090147 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 01:47:06 Z

[5] WTI jumps above $92.50 amid US and Iran’s fragile ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-jumps-above-9250-amid-us-and-irans-fragile-ceasefire-202604090128 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 01:28:12 Z

[6] Australian Dollar declines due to fading optimism surrounding US-Iran ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-declines-due-to-fading-optimism-surrounding-us-iran-ceasefire-202604090127 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 01:27:32 Z

[7] Japanese Yen moves away from three-week top as tenuous US-Iran ceasefire benefits USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-moves-away-from-three-week-top-as-tenuous-us-iran-ceasefire-benefits-usd-202604090116 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 01:16:23 Z

[8] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8649 vs. 6.8680 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-68649-vs-68680-previous-202604090115 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 01:15:33 Z

[9] Hezbollah claims attacks at northern Israel in response to ceasefire violations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hezbollah-claims-attacks-at-northern-israel-in-response-to-ceasefire-violations-202604090103 Published: Thu, 09 Apr 2026 01:03:38 Z

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Video sent to Iran International shows IRGC using civilians as human shields Time: 2026-04-09T03:04:56.790Z

[2] Trump accuses NYT, CNN of publishing ‘fake’ Iran negotiation plan Time: 2026-04-09T02:59:58.412Z

[3] Canada, Pakistan agree ceasefire must extend to Lebanon Time: 2026-04-09T02:26:55.195Z

[4] Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed despite ceasefire - NYT Time: 2026-04-09T02:21:35.141Z

[5] Fetterman calls Iranian actions ‘war crimes,’ opposes War Powers measure Time: 2026-04-09T01:50:57.924Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled