Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 16:02:22
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Mixed (49.2% ▲ >50d, 55.9% ▲ >200d)
- Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A ◆)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.469 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.12% ▲ (Watchful ◆) | 2s10s: 0.00% (N/A)
- Global Liquidity: N/A ◆ | BTC: $71,276 ▲ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +2.12% ▲, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $675.89 ▲ | 43.35 | 33.2 | $660.74 | Bullish | 0.20 |
| QQQ | $606.02 ▲ | 42.24 | 35.3 | $588.23 | Bullish | 0.57 |
| IWM | $260.51 ▲ | 53.10 | 41.0 | $251.12 | Bullish | 0.36 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 21.05 ▼ | 57.01 | 56.3 | $10.51 | Bearish | 1.25 |
| TNX | 42.91 | 60.80 | 64.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $434.52 ▲ | 39.82 | 54.9 | $416.37 | Bullish | 0.65 |
| DXY | 99.03 ▼ | 40.80 ▼ | 51.5 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.54 ▲ | 39.94 | 28.8 | $64.71 | Bullish | 0.55 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.29%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.69 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.03 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.34 ▼ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,163,663 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,130,867 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.31 ▼ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.12% ▲ (Watchful ◆)
- BBB Spread: 1.08%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.00% (N/A)
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 49.2% ▲ (of 500)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.9% ▲
- Breadth Signal: Mixed
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $N/AB
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
- Liquidity Regime: N/A ◆
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A ◆
- BTC-USD: $71,276 ▲ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.71B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +2.12% ▲
- 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- GOOGL: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Rallies above 0.5800, eyes on 200-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-rallies-above-05800-eyes-on-200-day-sma-202604081952 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 19:52:57 Z
[2] Singapore: Energy buffers seen limiting near‑term risks – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-energy-buffers-seen-limiting-near-term-risks-mufg-202604081949 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 19:49:00 Z
[3] Forex Today: FOMC Minutes reinforce 'higher-for-longer' as markets digest the ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-fomc-minutes-reinforce-higher-for-longer-as-markets-digest-the-ceasefire-202604081914 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 19:14:58 Z
[4] US: Demand still dominant but moderating – BNP Paribas URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-demand-still-dominant-but-moderating-bnp-paribas-202604081907 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 19:07:00 Z
[5] DXY bounces from fresh lows as ceasefire cracks widen on all sides URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dxy-bounces-from-fresh-lows-as-ceasefire-cracks-widen-on-all-sides-202604081900 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 19:00:31 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[BREAKING] [1] Strait of Hormuz fully closed, tankers forced to turn back - Press TV Time: 2026-04-08T19:51:14.949Z
[2] Vance says US did not agree ceasefire with Iran would cover Lebanon Time: 2026-04-08T19:45:57.920Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled