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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 16:02:22

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Mixed (49.2% ▲ >50d, 55.9% ▲ >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A ◆)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.469 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.12% ▲ (Watchful ◆) | 2s10s: 0.00% (N/A)
  • Global Liquidity: N/A ◆ | BTC: $71,276 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.12% ▲, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $675.89 ▲ 43.35 33.2 $660.74 Bullish 0.20
QQQ $606.02 ▲ 42.24 35.3 $588.23 Bullish 0.57
IWM $260.51 ▲ 53.10 41.0 $251.12 Bullish 0.36

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 21.05 ▼ 57.01 56.3 $10.51 Bearish 1.25
TNX 42.91 60.80 64.7 - - -
GLD $434.52 ▲ 39.82 54.9 $416.37 Bullish 0.65
DXY 99.03 ▼ 40.80 ▼ 51.5 ▲ - - -
SLV $67.54 ▲ 39.94 28.8 $64.71 Bullish 0.55

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.29%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.69 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.03 ▼
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.34 ▼ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,163,663 ▲
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,130,867 ▲
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.31 ▼ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.12% ▲ (Watchful ◆)
  • BBB Spread: 1.08%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.00% (N/A)

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 49.2% ▲ (of 500)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.9% ▲
  • Breadth Signal: Mixed

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $N/AB
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
  • Liquidity Regime: N/A ◆
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A ◆
  • BTC-USD: $71,276 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.71B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.12% ▲
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (5):

[1] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Rallies above 0.5800, eyes on 200-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-rallies-above-05800-eyes-on-200-day-sma-202604081952 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 19:52:57 Z

[2] Singapore: Energy buffers seen limiting near‑term risks – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-energy-buffers-seen-limiting-near-term-risks-mufg-202604081949 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 19:49:00 Z

[3] Forex Today: FOMC Minutes reinforce 'higher-for-longer' as markets digest the ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-fomc-minutes-reinforce-higher-for-longer-as-markets-digest-the-ceasefire-202604081914 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 19:14:58 Z

[4] US: Demand still dominant but moderating – BNP Paribas URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-demand-still-dominant-but-moderating-bnp-paribas-202604081907 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 19:07:00 Z

[5] DXY bounces from fresh lows as ceasefire cracks widen on all sides URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dxy-bounces-from-fresh-lows-as-ceasefire-cracks-widen-on-all-sides-202604081900 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 19:00:31 Z

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[BREAKING] [1] Strait of Hormuz fully closed, tankers forced to turn back - Press TV Time: 2026-04-08T19:51:14.949Z

[2] Vance says US did not agree ceasefire with Iran would cover Lebanon Time: 2026-04-08T19:45:57.920Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled