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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 15:00:46

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Mixed (47.9% >50d, 55.2% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.469 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.12% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,897B | BTC: $71,116 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.11%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $672.92 ▼ 43.35 33.2 $656.80 Bullish 0.19
QQQ $602.75 ▼ 42.24 35.3 $583.82 Bullish 0.34
IWM $258.67 ▼ 53.10 41.0 $250.77 Bullish 0.36

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 21.83 ▲ 57.01 56.3 $10.63 Neutral 1.11
TNX 42.91 ▼ 60.80 64.7 - - -
GLD $431.99 ▼ 39.82 54.9 $416.40 Neutral 0.75
DXY 99.12 ▲ 41.48 ▲ 50.5 ▼ - - -
SLV $66.58 ▼ 39.94 28.8 $64.74 Bullish 0.64

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.29% ▼
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.69 ▼ (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.12 ▲
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▼
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.34 ▼ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,687,237 ▲
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,633,343 ▲
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.35 ▲ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.12% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.08%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 47.9% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.2%
  • Breadth Signal: Mixed

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,897B
  • BTC-USD: $71,116 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.71B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.11%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (6):

[1] USD/CHF Price Forecast: US Dollar slides below 200-day SMA, bears gain steam URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-slides-below-200-day-sma-bears-gain-steam-202604081840 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 18:40:08 Z

[2] USD/INR: RBI curbs speculative longs, room to fall – OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-rbi-curbs-speculative-longs-room-to-fall-ocbc-202604081834 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 18:34:00 Z

[3] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD consolidates within bearish flag on 4-hour chart URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-consolidates-within-bearish-flag-on-4-hour-chart-202604081832 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 18:32:45 Z

[4] Gold climbs on US-Iran ceasefire as softer Dollar, Oil lend support URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-climbs-on-us-iran-ceasefire-as-softer-dollar-oil-lend-support-202604081816 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 18:16:46 Z

[5] Breaking: Fed Minutes show patience, but risks now clearly two-sided URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-to-offer-insights-into-march-hold-decision-amid-hawkish-outlook-202604081315 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 18:07:34 Z

[6] Fed: Later cuts as inflation re-firms – Wells Fargo URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-later-cuts-as-inflation-re-firms-wells-fargo-202604081801 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 18:01:32 Z

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] Video: Heavy Israeli strikes hit several areas in Lebanon Time: 2026-04-08T18:58:12.158Z

[2] Iran hints at UAE role in post-truce attack on Lavan Island Time: 2026-04-08T18:56:58.474Z

[3] Qatar urges building on US-Iran ceasefire in call with Saudi Arabia Time: 2026-04-08T18:45:42.131Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled