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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 13:00:59

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Mixed (47.9% >50d, 55.2% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,812B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.469 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.25 ▼ (Normal Relationship ◆)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.12% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,882B | BTC: $71,637 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.11%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $676.08 ▲ 43.35 33.2 $660.77 Bullish 0.13
QQQ $607.38 ▲ 42.24 35.3 $588.53 Bullish 0.50
IWM $260.74 ▲ 53.10 41.0 $251.07 Bullish 0.28

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 20.67 ▼ 57.01 56.3 $10.52 Bearish 1.27
TNX 42.79 ▼ 60.80 64.7 - - -
GLD $437.19 ▲ 39.82 54.9 $416.44 Bullish 0.59
DXY 98.90 ▼ 39.91 ▼ 53.1 ▲ - - -
SLV $68.31 ▼ 39.94 28.8 $56.49 Bullish 0.54

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.28% ▼
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.68 ▼ (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.90 ▼
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 ▼ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 ▼ (Normal Relationship ◆)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 1,922,746 ▲
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 2,420,391 ▲
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.26 ▼ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.12% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.08%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 47.9% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.2%
  • Breadth Signal: Mixed

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,812B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,882B
  • BTC-USD: $71,637 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.71B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.11%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (4):

[1] Dow Jones Industrial Average futures surge 1,200 points on ceasefire, but cracks are emerging URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-industrial-average-futures-surge-1-200-points-on-ceasefire-but-cracks-are-emerging-202604081651 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 16:51:11 Z

[2] Hungary: Inflation set to reaccelerate – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungary-inflation-set-to-reaccelerate-ing-202604081640 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 16:40:52 Z

[3] WTI slides sharply after US-Iran ceasefire removes war premium URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-slides-sharply-after-us-iran-ceasefire-removes-war-premium-202604081631 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 16:31:02 Z

[4] Fed Minutes to offer insights into March hold decision amid hawkish outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-to-offer-insights-into-march-hold-decision-amid-hawkish-outlook-202604081315 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 16:15:00 Z

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] IRGC warns of ‘regretful response’ if attacks on Lebanon continue Time: 2026-04-08T16:53:05.093Z

[BREAKING] [2] Eyewitnesses report explosions, air defense activity across Tehran Time: 2026-04-08T16:41:23.465Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled