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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 12:01:39

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Mixed (47.9% ▲ >50d, 55.2% ▲ >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A ◆)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.469 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.25 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.12% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: N/A ◆ | BTC: $71,303 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.11% ▼, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $675.16 ▲ 43.35 33.2 $660.76 Bullish 0.13
QQQ $606.11 ▲ 42.24 35.3 $588.39 Bullish 0.34
IWM $260.77 ▲ 53.10 41.0 $251.08 Bullish 0.30

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 21.01 ▼ 57.01 56.3 $10.51 Neutral 1.20
TNX 42.75 ▲ 60.80 64.7 - - -
GLD $437.01 ▲ 39.82 54.9 $416.39 Bullish 0.59
DXY 98.82 ▲ 39.37 ▲ 54.2 ▼ - - -
SLV $68.44 ▲ 39.94 28.8 $64.77 Bullish 0.56

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.28% ▲
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.68 ▲ (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.82 ▲
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▼
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 ▲ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 1,517,118 ▲
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 1,969,801 ▲
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 ▼ (Balanced 0DTE Flow ◆)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.12% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.08%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 47.9% ▲ (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.2% ▲
  • Breadth Signal: Mixed

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $N/AB
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $N/AB
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
  • Liquidity Regime: N/A ◆
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A ◆
  • BTC-USD: $71,303 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.71B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.11% ▼
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (7):

[1] USD/JPY Price Analysis: Fragile ceasefire fuels volatility as markets read between the lines URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-analysis-fragile-ceasefire-fuels-volatility-as-markets-read-between-the-lines-202604081554 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 15:54:20 Z

[2] Gold struggles to build on gains despite weaker US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-climbs-as-us-iran-ceasefire-weighs-on-us-dollar-202604081221 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 15:43:40 Z

[3] USD/CAD weakens as US-Iran ceasefire cools Dollar demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-weakens-as-us-iran-ceasefire-cools-dollar-demand-202604081530 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 15:30:48 Z

[4] GBP/USD surges as Iran truce dents US Dollar broadly URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-surges-as-iran-truce-dents-us-dollar-broadly-202604081528 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 15:28:24 Z

[5] NASDAQ 100 gaps up on two-week ceasefire but traders take profit URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nasdaq-100-gaps-up-on-two-week-ceasefire-but-traders-take-profit-202604081526 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 15:26:41 Z

[6] Fed Minutes to highlight hawkish tone behind March rate hold URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-to-offer-insights-into-march-hold-decision-amid-hawkish-outlook-202604081315 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 15:15:00 Z

[7] Brent: Elevated prices after ceasefire relief – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-elevated-prices-after-ceasefire-relief-commerzbank-202604081500 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 15:00:45 Z

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] EU’s Kallas says ceasefire a relief but uncertainty remains Time: 2026-04-08T15:54:42.118Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled