Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 11:00:43

Executive Summary

• Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
• Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
• Credit Signal: Risk ON
• Breadth: Mixed (44.5% >50d, 54.8% >200d)
• Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A ◆)
• Dark Pool DIX: 0.469 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
• MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
• Credit: HY OAS 3.12% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
• Global Liquidity: N/A ◆ | BTC: $70,788 ▼ (Neutral)
• Seasonality (April): Avg +2.12%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Macro Board

Macro Fundamentals

• 10Y Yield: 4.27% ▲
• Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.67 ▲ (Normal)
• DXY: 98.74 ▼
• Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▼
• Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 ▼ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

• MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
• VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
• 0DTE Call Volume: 982,215 ▲
• 0DTE Put Volume: 1,475,987 ▲
• 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.50 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

• HY OAS Spread: 3.12% (Watchful)
• BBB Spread: 1.08%
• 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

• Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 44.5% (of 483)
• Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 54.8%
• Breadth Signal: Mixed

Fed & Global Liquidity

• Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $N/AB
• Treasury General Account (TGA): $N/AB
• Reverse Repo (RRP): $N/AB
• US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
• Liquidity Regime: N/A ◆
• ECB Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
• BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
• Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A ◆
• BTC-USD: $70,788 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

• DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
• GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.71B
• Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

• 20yr Average Return: +2.12%
• 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
• Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
• Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

• AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
• MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
• NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
• GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
• AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
• META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
• TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
• WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
• JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
• GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

• GS: 2026-04-13
• JPM: 2026-04-14
• TSLA: 2026-04-22
• MSFT: 2026-04-29
• GOOGL: 2026-04-29
• META: 2026-04-29
• AAPL: 2026-04-30
• AMZN: 2026-04-30
• NVDA: 2026-05-20
• WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

• Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10

FX News Wire

Unread articles (10):

[1] Oil tankers passing through Hormuz stopped after Israel's ceasefire breach – Fars News Agency URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-tankers-passing-through-hormuz-stopped-after-israels-ceasefire-breach-fars-news-agency-202604081458 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:58:32 Z

[2] Eurozone: Weak demand offsets supply constraints – BNP Paribas URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-weak-demand-offsets-supply-constraints-bnp-paribas-202604081449 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:49:38 Z

[3] RBI: Cautious hold as conflict clouds outlook – BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbi-cautious-hold-as-conflict-clouds-outlook-bny-202604081440 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:40:59 Z

[4] GBP/USD: Strong rally eyes 1.35 – Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-strong-rally-eyes-135-scotiabank-202604081435 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:35:20 Z

[5] United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change above expectations (0.7M) in April 3: Actual (3.081M) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-crude-oil-stocks-change-above-expectations-07m-in-april-3-actual-3081m-202604081430 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:30:02 Z

[6] USD: Ceasefire drives renewed weakness – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-ceasefire-drives-renewed-weakness-mufg-202604081427 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:27:03 Z

[7] US: Oil shock stalls disinflation – Wells Fargo URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-oil-shock-stalls-disinflation-wells-fargo-202604081418 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:18:14 Z

[8] Fed Minutes to provide clues on March hold as war-related inflation fears mount URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-to-offer-insights-into-march-hold-decision-amid-hawkish-outlook-202604081315 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:15:00 Z

[9] Canada: Tariff shock lessons shape policy – RBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-tariff-shock-lessons-shape-policy-rbc-202604081403 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:03:11 Z

[10] Gold holds near three-week highs as US-Iran ceasefire weakens US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-climbs-as-us-iran-ceasefire-weighs-on-us-dollar-202604081221 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:00:47 Z

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[BREAKING] [1] White House says Lebanon not part of US-Iran ceasefire - Axios Time: 2026-04-08T14:58:33.680Z

[2] Shipping firm says Hormuz transit still uncertain after ceasefire Time: 2026-04-08T14:56:32.504Z

[3] Arab states fear Iran could emerge stronger from war - AP Time: 2026-04-08T14:49:03.591Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

• Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
• Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
• Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
• War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
• Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
• Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
• Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled