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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 10:45:30

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Mixed (44.5% >50d, 54.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,812B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.469 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.12% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,882B ◆ | BTC: $71,132 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.12%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $673.47 ▼ 43.35 33.2 $658.88 Bullish 0.17
QQQ $604.66 ▼ 42.24 35.3 $583.93 Bullish 0.27
IWM $259.96 ▼ 53.10 41.0 $251.19 Bullish 0.40

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 21.61 ▲ 57.01 56.3 $10.63 Neutral 1.18
TNX 42.67 60.80 64.7 - - -
GLD $437.43 ▼ 39.82 54.9 $416.48 Bullish 0.61
DXY 98.78 ▲ 39.12 ▲ 54.8 ▼ - - -
SLV $68.40 ▼ 39.94 28.8 $64.70 Bullish 0.55

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.27%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.67 ▲ (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.78 ▲
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▼
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 ▼ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 799,977 ▲
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 1,199,027 ▲
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.50 ▲ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.12% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.08%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 44.5% (of 483)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 54.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Mixed

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,812B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B ▲ (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B ▲ (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,882B ◆
  • BTC-USD: $71,132 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.71B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.12%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[BREAKING] [1] Iran halts tankers in Hormuz after alleged Israeli ceasefire breach - Fars Time: 2026-04-08T14:43:02.357Z

[2] Trump says Vance may skip talks in Pakistan over security - NY Post Time: 2026-04-08T14:39:03.357Z

[3] Iran may quit ceasefire if Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue - Tasnim Time: 2026-04-08T14:30:51.482Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled