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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 10:01:03

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Mixed (44.5% >50d, 54.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A ◆)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.469 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.25 ▲ (Normal Relationship)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: N/A ◆ | BTC: $71,524 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.12%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $674.85 ▼ 43.35 33.2 $658.91 Bullish 0.15
QQQ $606.03 ▼ 42.24 35.3 $588.25 Bullish 0.23
IWM $261.00 ▼ 53.10 41.0 $251.21 Bullish 0.34

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 20.80 ▲ 57.01 56.3 $10.52 Bearish 1.28
TNX 42.63 ▲ 60.80 64.7 - - -
GLD $439.57 ▲ 39.82 54.9 $416.43 Bullish 0.58
DXY 98.74 ▼ 38.88 ▼ 55.4 ▲ - - -
SLV $69.27 ▲ 39.94 28.8 $64.70 Bullish 0.53

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.26% ▲
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.67 ▲ (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.74 ▼
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▼
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.36 ▼ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 ▲ (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 460,751 ▲
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 634,308 ▲
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.38 ▲ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.07%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 44.5% (of 483)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 54.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Mixed

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $N/AB
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $N/AB
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
  • Liquidity Regime: N/A ◆
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A ◆
  • BTC-USD: $71,524 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.71B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.12%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.57%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10

FX News Wire

Unread articles (6):

[1] Gold: High carry costs now, $5,000 target later – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-high-carry-costs-now-5-000-target-later-td-securities-202604081344 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 13:44:40 Z

[2] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: DXY slides to one-month lows, tests key SMA confluence URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-dxy-slides-to-one-month-lows-tests-key-sma-confluence-202604081340 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 13:40:59 Z

[3] USD: Iran-driven swings point to shallow depreciation – OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-iran-driven-swings-point-to-shallow-depreciation-ocbc-202604081329 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 13:29:55 Z

[4] OKLO is testing $44.80 – the next stop could be $39.72 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oklo-is-testing-4480-the-next-stop-could-be-3972-202604081315 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 13:15:19 Z

[5] Fed Minutes to offer insights into March hold decision amid hawkish outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-to-offer-insights-into-march-hold-decision-amid-hawkish-outlook-202604081315 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 13:15:00 Z

[6] Copper: From laggard to potential outperformer – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-from-laggard-to-potential-outperformer-commerzbank-202604081306 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 13:06:01 Z

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[BREAKING] [1] Iran reassures neighbours, warns US and Israel against 'new mistake' Time: 2026-04-08T13:52:41.516Z

[BREAKING] [2] UN envoy Arnault arrives in Iran after two-week ceasefire Time: 2026-04-08T13:31:33.823Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait Monitor: unavailable (last known):

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled