Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 09:00:52
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% >50d, 49.8% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,812B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.25 ▲ (Normal Relationship)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.05% ▲ (Watchful ◆) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,882B | BTC: $72,079 ▲ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $676.72 ▲ | 43.35 | 33.2 | $656.99 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| QQQ | $609.16 ▲ | 42.24 | 35.3 | $583.92 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| IWM | $262.00 ▲ | 53.10 | 41.0 | $251.02 | Bearish | 1.76 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 20.23 ▼ | 57.01 | 56.3 | $10.51 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| TNX | 42.44 ▲ | 60.80 | 64.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $441.23 ▲ | 39.82 | 54.9 | $416.45 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| DXY | 98.58 ▼ | 37.89 ▼ | 58.0 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $70.20 ▲ | 39.94 | 28.8 | $53.08 | Neutral | 0.75 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.24% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.64 ▲ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.58 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.37 ▲ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 ▲ (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.05% ▲ (Watchful ◆)
- BBB Spread: 1.07% ▲
- 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% (of 499)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,812B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,882B
- BTC-USD: $72,079 ▲ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.46%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- GOOGL: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] Iran's IRGC: Will manage Strait of Hormuz proactively URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-irgc-will-manage-strait-of-hormuz-proactively-202604081257 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:57:13 Z
[2] RBNZ: Hold at 2.25% with tightening bias – BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbnz-hold-at-225-with-tightening-bias-bny-202604081241 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:41:36 Z
[3] USD/BRL: Targets 5.55 by end-2026 – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-brl-targets-555-by-end-2026-rabobank-202604081235 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:35:42 Z
[4] Gold climbs as US-Iran ceasefire weighs on US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-climbs-as-us-iran-ceasefire-weighs-on-us-dollar-202604081221 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:21:02 Z
[5] Oil: Prices slump below $100 on ceasefire – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-prices-slump-below-100-on-ceasefire-ing-202604081206 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:06:50 Z
[6] USD: Relief-driven downside potential – BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-relief-driven-downside-potential-bbh-202604081202 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:02:05 Z
[7] Mexico Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 44.5 to 44.1 in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-consumer-confidence-dipped-from-previous-445-to-441-in-march-202604081201 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:01:04 Z
[8] Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a: 44.1 (March) vs previous 44.4 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-consumer-confidence-sa-441-march-vs-previous-444-202604081200 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:00:24 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Hegseth says hopes Iranians seize âopportunityâ, says change not US objective Time: 2026-04-08T12:44:59.416Z
[BREAKING] [2] Saudi East-West oil pipeline hit in drone attack - FT Time: 2026-04-08T12:32:09.184Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled