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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 09:00:52

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% >50d, 49.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,812B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.25 ▲ (Normal Relationship)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.05% ▲ (Watchful ◆) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,882B | BTC: $72,079 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $676.72 ▲ 43.35 33.2 $656.99 Neutral 0.86
QQQ $609.16 ▲ 42.24 35.3 $583.92 Neutral 0.72
IWM $262.00 ▲ 53.10 41.0 $251.02 Bearish 1.76

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 20.23 ▼ 57.01 56.3 $10.51 Neutral 0.72
TNX 42.44 ▲ 60.80 64.7 - - -
GLD $441.23 ▲ 39.82 54.9 $416.45 Neutral 0.78
DXY 98.58 ▼ 37.89 ▼ 58.0 ▲ - - -
SLV $70.20 ▲ 39.94 28.8 $53.08 Neutral 0.75

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.24% ▲
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.64 ▲ (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.58 ▼
  • Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.37 ▲ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 ▲ (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.05% ▲ (Watchful ◆)
  • BBB Spread: 1.07% ▲
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% (of 499)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,812B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,882B
  • BTC-USD: $72,079 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.46%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08

FX News Wire

Unread articles (8):

[1] Iran's IRGC: Will manage Strait of Hormuz proactively URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-irgc-will-manage-strait-of-hormuz-proactively-202604081257 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:57:13 Z

[2] RBNZ: Hold at 2.25% with tightening bias – BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbnz-hold-at-225-with-tightening-bias-bny-202604081241 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:41:36 Z

[3] USD/BRL: Targets 5.55 by end-2026 – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-brl-targets-555-by-end-2026-rabobank-202604081235 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:35:42 Z

[4] Gold climbs as US-Iran ceasefire weighs on US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-climbs-as-us-iran-ceasefire-weighs-on-us-dollar-202604081221 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:21:02 Z

[5] Oil: Prices slump below $100 on ceasefire – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-prices-slump-below-100-on-ceasefire-ing-202604081206 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:06:50 Z

[6] USD: Relief-driven downside potential – BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-relief-driven-downside-potential-bbh-202604081202 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:02:05 Z

[7] Mexico Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 44.5 to 44.1 in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-consumer-confidence-dipped-from-previous-445-to-441-in-march-202604081201 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:01:04 Z

[8] Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a: 44.1 (March) vs previous 44.4 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-consumer-confidence-sa-441-march-vs-previous-444-202604081200 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:00:24 Z

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Hegseth says hopes Iranians seize ‘opportunity’, says change not US objective Time: 2026-04-08T12:44:59.416Z

[BREAKING] [2] Saudi East-West oil pipeline hit in drone attack - FT Time: 2026-04-08T12:32:09.184Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled