Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 08:30:37
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal) ◆
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% >50d, 49.8% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,812B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.24 ▼ (Normal Relationship ◆)
- Credit: HY OAS 0.00% ▼ (N/A ◆) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,882B | BTC: $71,737 ▲ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $676.50 ▲ | 43.35 ▼ | 33.2 ▼ | $656.99 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| QQQ | $608.40 ▲ | 42.24 ▼ | 35.3 ▼ | $583.92 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| IWM | $261.99 ▲ | 53.10 ▼ | 41.0 ▼ | $251.02 | Bearish | 1.76 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 20.70 ▼ | 57.01 ▲ | 56.3 ▼ | $10.51 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| TNX | 42.42 ▼ | 60.80 ▲ | 64.7 ▼ | - | - | - |
| GLD | $439.48 ▲ | 39.82 ▲ | 54.9 ▼ | $416.45 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| DXY | 98.72 ▼ | 38.78 ▼ | 55.6 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $69.67 ▲ | 39.94 ▲ | 28.8 ▼ | $53.08 | Neutral | 0.75 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.24% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.64 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 98.72 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.90 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.36 ▲ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 ▼ (Normal Relationship ◆)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0 ▼
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0 ▼
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 ▼ (No 0DTE Expiry Today ◆)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 0.00% ▼ (N/A ◆)
- BBB Spread: 0.00% ▼
- 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% (of 499)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,812B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,882B
- BTC-USD: $71,737 ▲ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.46%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- GOOGL: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (7):
[1] Hegseth says âwar department has done its partâ Time: 2026-04-08T12:26:19.254Z
[BREAKING] [2] Top US general says ceasefire is a âpauseâ, forces ready to resume combat Time: 2026-04-08T12:18:02.886Z
[3] Iran nuclear material to be removed, Hegseth says Time: 2026-04-08T12:14:08.917Z
[4] Hegseth says Iran deal followed loss of leadership, says Tehran âout of optionsâ Time: 2026-04-08T12:12:08.120Z
[5] Iran must compensate Qatar for strike damage, Doha tells UN Time: 2026-04-08T12:00:18.144Z
[6] Iran may reopen Hormuz this week if ceasefire framework agreed - Reuters Time: 2026-04-08T11:59:43.955Z
[7] First ships cross Hormuz after ceasefire, hundreds still stranded Time: 2026-04-08T11:45:57.172Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled