Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 08:00:12

Executive Summary

Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
Credit Signal: Risk ON
Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% >50d, 49.8% >200d)
Net Liquidity: $5,812B (Expanding)
Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
Global Liquidity: $16,882B | BTC: $71,703 ▲ (Neutral)
Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	GEX Sent	PCR
SPY	$664.82	44.29	34.5	$659.14	Neutral	0.80
QQQ	$593.87	43.92	36.6	$588.65	Neutral	0.73
IWM	$255.88	53.68	46.2	$251.53	Bearish	1.20

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	GEX Sent	PCR
VIX	25.78	51.38	68.3	$11.00	Bullish	0.56
TNX	43.43	58.67	65.3	-	-	-
GLD	$435.30	37.57	55.6	$416.47	Neutral	0.80
DXY	99.64	50.49	48.1	-	-	-
SLV	$66.68	38.06	29.4	$53.06	Neutral	0.75

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.34%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
DXY: 99.64
Growth vs Value: 0.89
Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.33 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,153,850
0DTE Put Volume: 4,033,142
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.28 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
BBB Spread: 1.07%
2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% (of 499)
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,812B
Liquidity Regime: Expanding
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,882B
BTC-USD: $71,703 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

20yr Average Return: +1.99%
20yr Median Return: +1.46%
Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

GS: 2026-04-13
JPM: 2026-04-14
TSLA: 2026-04-22
MSFT: 2026-04-29
GOOGL: 2026-04-29
META: 2026-04-29
AAPL: 2026-04-30
AMZN: 2026-04-30
NVDA: 2026-05-20
WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (15):

[1] UK: PMI inflation surge clouds outlook – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-pmi-inflation-surge-clouds-outlook-mufg-202604081154 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 11:54:08 Z

[2] NZD/USD rallies to near 0.5850 amid risk-on mood, RBNZ’s hawkish remarks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-rallies-to-near-05850-amid-risk-on-mood-rbnzs-hawkish-remarks-202604081144 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 11:44:40 Z

[3] Euro steadies at five-week highs near 1.1700 amid market optimism URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-nears-11700-as-markets-welcome-the-ceasefire-in-iran-202604080620 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 11:43:41 Z

[4] EUR: Supported with firmer data and ceasefire – BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-supported-with-firmer-data-and-ceasefire-bny-202604081139 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 11:39:49 Z

[5] US President Trump: Talking tariff and sanctions relief with Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-trump-talking-tariff-and-sanctions-relief-with-iran-202604081138 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 11:38:14 Z

[6] CNY at a glance: China’s Yuan moves into our bullish scenario URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cny-at-a-glance-chinas-yuan-moves-into-our-bullish-scenario-202604081132 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 11:32:17 Z

[7] Gold: Ceasefire rally driven by yields and rates – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-ceasefire-rally-driven-by-yields-and-rates-commerzbank-202604081127 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 11:27:07 Z

[8] 11th hour ceasefire deal triggers global risk-on surge – Strait open, Oil crashes, markets soar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/11th-hour-ceasefire-deal-triggers-global-risk-on-surge-strait-open-oil-crashes-markets-soar-202604081123 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 11:23:30 Z

[9] NZD: RBNZ tightening bias and earlier hike risk – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-rbnz-tightening-bias-and-earlier-hike-risk-td-securities-202604081115 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 11:15:40 Z

[10] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD – Bulls seize control URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-bulls-seize-control-202604081113 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 11:13:52 Z

[11] AUD/USD eases below 0.7050 as the market digests the ceasefire in Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-eases-below-07050-as-the-market-digests-the-ceasefire-in-iran-202604081100 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 11:00:03 Z

[12] United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to -0.8% in April 3 from previous -10.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-mba-mortgage-applications-up-to-08-in-april-3-from-previous-104-202604081100 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 11:00:01 Z

[13] USD/INR falls sharply as oil prices face bloodbath on US-Iran ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-tumbles-on-us-iran-two-week-ceasefire-rbi-leaves-repo-rate-unchanged-at-525-202604080524 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 10:47:59 Z

[14] DAX jumps after breakout as European stocks extend rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dax-jumps-after-breakout-as-european-stocks-extend-rally-202604081025 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 10:25:19 Z

[15] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bearish momentum gains traction below 0.7900 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-bearish-momentum-gains-traction-below-07900-202604081012 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 10:12:43 Z

Iran War News

Updates (8):

[1] Trump threatens 50% tariffs on countries supplying weapons to Iran Time: 2026-04-08T11:35:46.735Z

[BREAKING] [2] Trump says US to work with Iran after âregime changeâ, no uranium enrichment Time: 2026-04-08T11:24:54.341Z

[3] Iran Guards say ready to respond to any new attack Time: 2026-04-08T10:49:05.728Z

[4] Kuwait urges halt to hostilities, backs US-Iran ceasefire Time: 2026-04-08T10:24:36.515Z

[5] Iran says Lavan refinery hit in attack, no casualties reported Time: 2026-04-08T10:12:07.477Z

[6] Trump administration may cut Iran war funding request - WaPost Time: 2026-04-08T10:05:50.818Z

[7] Vance says Iran must negotiate in good faith Time: 2026-04-08T10:00:43.653Z

[8] Iran confirms participation in US talks in Islamabad, Pakistan PM says Time: 2026-04-08T09:57:34.625Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled