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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 06:00:11

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
  • Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% >50d, 49.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,812B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,882B | BTC: $71,686 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $664.82 44.29 34.5 $659.14 Neutral 0.80
QQQ $593.87 43.92 36.6 $588.65 Neutral 0.73
IWM $255.88 53.68 46.2 $251.53 Bearish 1.20

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 25.78 51.38 68.3 $11.00 Bullish 0.56
TNX 43.43 58.67 65.3 - - -
GLD $435.30 37.57 55.6 $416.47 Neutral 0.80
DXY 99.64 50.49 48.1 - - -
SLV $66.68 38.06 29.4 $53.06 Neutral 0.75

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.34%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.64
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.33 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,153,850
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,033,142
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.28 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.07%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% (of 499)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,812B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,882B
  • BTC-USD: $71,686 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.46%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (22):

[1] EUR: Peace breather and ECB expectations support – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-peace-breather-and-ecb-expectations-support-commerzbank-202604080957 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:57:02 Z

[2] Gold: Ceasefire lifts prices as traders watch Hormuz – DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-ceasefire-lifts-prices-as-traders-watch-hormuz-dbs-202604080937 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:37:22 Z

[3] Germany 10-y Bond Auction increased to 2.92% from previous 2.89% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-10-y-bond-auction-increased-to-292-from-previous-289-202604080935 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:35:55 Z

[4] EUR/GBP is testing support at 0.8700 despite risk-on markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-is-testing-support-at-08700-despite-risk-on-markets-202604080934 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:34:17 Z

[5] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604080931 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:31:10 Z

[6] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Posts fresh monthly high around 1.1700 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-posts-fresh-monthly-high-around-11700-202604080930 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:30:36 Z

[7] NZD/USD: Hawkish RBNZ supports upside – BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-hawkish-rbnz-supports-upside-bbh-202604080924 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:24:20 Z

[8] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Trades near 185.00 after pulling back from upper channel boundary URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-trades-near-18500-after-pulling-back-from-upper-channel-boundary-202604080916 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:16:21 Z

[9] India: RBI seen on prolonged hold – UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-rbi-seen-on-prolonged-hold-uob-202604080906 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:06:59 Z

[10] Eurozone Retail Sales decline 0.2% MoM in February, as expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-retail-sales-decline-02-mom-in-february-as-expected-202604080905 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:05:37 Z

[11] Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.6%) in February: Actual (1.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-retail-sales-yoy-above-expectations-16-in-february-actual-17-202604080900 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:00:03 Z

[12] Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (-3%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-producer-price-index-yoy-in-line-with-expectations-3-in-february-202604080900 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:00:03 Z

[13] Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) meets expectations (-0.2%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-retail-sales-mom-meets-expectations-02-in-february-202604080900 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:00:02 Z

[14] Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.7%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-producer-price-index-mom-meets-forecasts-07-in-february-202604080900 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:00:02 Z

[15] DXY: Retreat extends but floor holds – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dxy-retreat-extends-but-floor-holds-ing-202604080835 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 08:35:00 Z

[16] United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI above forecasts (43.9) in March: Actual (45.6) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-construction-pmi-above-forecasts-439-in-march-actual-456-202604080830 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 08:30:01 Z

[17] WTI Crude Oil steadies near $90.00 after a ceasefire-led sell-off URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-crude-oil-steadies-near-9000-after-a-ceasefire-led-sell-off-202604080827 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 08:27:57 Z

[18] USD/INR extends decline on US-Iran two-week ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-tumbles-on-us-iran-two-week-ceasefire-rbi-leaves-repo-rate-unchanged-at-525-202604080524 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 08:25:19 Z

[19] Dow Jones futures rise as US-Iran ceasefire lifts market sentiment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-rise-as-us-iran-ceasefire-lifts-market-sentiment-202604080815 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 08:15:16 Z

[20] NZD/USD: RBNZ hawkish nuance but Kiwi capped – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-rbnz-hawkish-nuance-but-kiwi-capped-commerzbank-202604080815 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 08:15:15 Z

[21] Gold clings to gains above $4,800, near three-week top amid broadly weaker USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-eases-from-three-week-top-holds-near-4-800-as-us-iran-ceasefire-pressures-usd-202604080348 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 08:06:37 Z

[22] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Symmetrical Triangle breakdown below 159.00 warrants more downside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-symmetrical-triangle-breakdown-below-15900-warrants-more-downside-202604080803 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 08:03:05 Z

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[BREAKING] [1] UAE says air defenses responding to missile threat Time: 2026-04-08T09:46:04.899Z

[BREAKING] [2] Kuwait says air defenses intercept Iranian drones targeting infrastructure Time: 2026-04-08T09:40:06.091Z

[BREAKING] [3] Iran president says ceasefire reflects Tehran’s terms Time: 2026-04-08T09:29:19.720Z

[4] Oman says no plans to charge ships in Hormuz Time: 2026-04-08T09:20:01.895Z

[BREAKING] [5] Explosions reported on Iran’s Siri Island after ceasefire Time: 2026-04-08T09:01:26.697Z

[6] Zelenskyy backs Middle East ceasefire, calls for end to Russia war Time: 2026-04-08T08:58:48.527Z

[7] Oil drops, stocks rally after US-Iran ceasefire eases supply fears Time: 2026-04-08T08:44:07.313Z

[BREAKING] [8] Explosions reported at Iran’s Lavan refinery after ceasefire - Mehr Time: 2026-04-08T08:40:05.400Z

[9] IAEA says ready to support US-Iran peace effort after ceasefire Time: 2026-04-08T08:36:25.266Z

[10] India, Turkey welcome US-Iran ceasefire, back talks and Hormuz access Time: 2026-04-08T08:20:18.492Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled