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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 04:00:06

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
  • Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% >50d, 49.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,812B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,882B | BTC: $71,617 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $664.82 44.29 34.5 $659.14 Neutral 0.80
QQQ $593.87 43.92 36.6 $588.65 Neutral 0.73
IWM $255.88 53.68 46.2 $251.53 Bearish 1.20

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 25.78 51.38 68.3 $11.00 Bullish 0.56
TNX 43.43 58.67 65.3 - - -
GLD $435.30 37.57 55.6 $416.47 Neutral 0.80
DXY 99.64 50.49 48.1 - - -
SLV $66.68 38.06 29.4 $53.06 Neutral 0.75

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.34%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.64
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.33 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,153,850
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,033,142
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.28 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.07%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% (of 499)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,812B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,882B
  • BTC-USD: $71,617 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.46%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (27):

[1] USD: Market reprieve and Dollar risks – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-market-reprieve-and-dollar-risks-rabobank-202604080748 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 07:48:38 Z

[2] GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Pound hits resistance in the 212.80 area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-analysis-pound-hits-resistance-in-the-21280-area-202604080747 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 07:47:45 Z

[3] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Struggles near mid-1.3800s as bears await break below 200-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-struggles-near-mid-13800s-as-bears-await-break-below-200-day-ema-202604080741 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 07:41:02 Z

[4] Stock markets soar as predicted [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/stock-markets-soar-as-predicted-video-202604080723 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 07:23:36 Z

[5] S&P 500: Futures rebound on Hormuz ceasefire – Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-futures-rebound-on-hormuz-ceasefire-deutsche-bank-202604080713 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 07:13:36 Z

[6] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD returns above $77 as the US Dollar tumbles URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-returns-above-77-as-the-us-dollar-tumbles-202604080709 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 07:09:23 Z

[7] Gold stands firm near three-week top as USD slumps on US-Iran temporary ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-eases-from-three-week-top-holds-near-4-800-as-us-iran-ceasefire-pressures-usd-202604080348 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 07:01:27 Z

[8] Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) remains unchanged at 3% in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-unemployment-rate-sa-mom-remains-unchanged-at-3-in-march-202604080701 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 07:01:11 Z

[9] Australian Dollar jumps on US–Iran ceasefire, traders await FOMC Minutes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-jumps-on-us-iran-ceasefire-traders-await-fomc-minutes-202604080658 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:58:02 Z

[10] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Hovers around 0.5850, 50-day EMA due to bullish reversal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-hovers-around-05850-50-day-ema-due-to-bullish-reversal-202604080656 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:56:45 Z

[11] USD/INR declines on US-Iran ceasefire, RBI keeps Repo Rate steady at 5.25% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-tumbles-on-us-iran-two-week-ceasefire-rbi-leaves-repo-rate-unchanged-at-525-202604080524 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:55:31 Z

[12] Oil: Prices slide on fragile ceasefire and flow risks – Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-prices-slide-on-fragile-ceasefire-and-flow-risks-danske-bank-202604080651 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:51:45 Z

[13] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Reclaims two-week high around 1.3445 as sentiment improves URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-reclaims-two-week-high-around-13445-as-sentiment-improves-202604080649 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:49:51 Z

[14] France Imports, EUR rose from previous €55.3B to €57.791B in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-imports-eur-rose-from-previous-eu553b-to-eu57791b-in-february-202604080646 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:46:28 Z

[15] France Exports, EUR declined to €52.013B in February from previous €53.4B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-exports-eur-declined-to-eu52013b-in-february-from-previous-eu534b-202604080646 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:46:14 Z

[16] France Trade Balance EUR below expectations (€-2.3B) in February: Actual (€-5.778B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-trade-balance-eur-below-expectations-eu-23b-in-february-actual-eu-5778b-202604080646 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:46:01 Z

[17] France Imports, EUR increased to €57.8B in February from previous €55.3B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-imports-eur-increased-to-eu578b-in-february-from-previous-eu553b-202604080645 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:45:04 Z

[18] France Current Account dipped from previous €2.1B to €-1.8B in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-current-account-dipped-from-previous-eu21b-to-eu-18b-in-february-202604080645 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:45:02 Z

[19] France Trade Balance EUR came in at €-5.8B below forecasts (€-2.3B) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-trade-balance-eur-came-in-at-eu-58b-below-forecasts-eu-23b-in-february-202604080645 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:45:02 Z

[20] France Exports, EUR down to €52B in February from previous €53.4B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-exports-eur-down-to-eu52b-in-february-from-previous-eu534b-202604080645 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:45:01 Z

[21] Forex Today: Risk flows dominate as US and Iran agree to two-week ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-risk-flows-dominate-as-us-and-iran-agree-to-two-week-ceasefire-202604080641 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:41:04 Z

[22] EUR/USD: Dollar slips on Gulf ceasefire – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-dollar-slips-on-gulf-ceasefire-commerzbank-202604080628 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:28:52 Z

[23] EUR/USD nears 1.1700 as markets welcome the ceasefire in Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-nears-11700-as-markets-welcome-the-ceasefire-in-iran-202604080620 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:20:34 Z

[24] USD/CHF tumbles below 0.7900 on Trump's ceasefire announcement, FOMC Minutes in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-tumbles-below-07900-on-trumps-ceasefire-announcement-fomc-minutes-in-focus-202604080607 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:07:27 Z

[25] Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) declined to 3.5% in February from previous 3.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-factory-orders-nsa-yoy-declined-to-35-in-february-from-previous-37-202604080601 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:01:46 Z

[26] United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.1%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-halifax-house-prices-mom-came-in-at-05-below-forecasts-01-in-march-202604080601 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:01:35 Z

[27] Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.9% below forecasts (2%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-factory-orders-sa-mom-came-in-at-09-below-forecasts-2-in-february-202604080600 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 06:00:04 Z

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[1] EU’s von der Leyen says talks must continue after US-Iran truce Time: 2026-04-08T07:46:14.553Z

[2] Israel says ceasefire in place with Iran after overnight strikes on missile sites Time: 2026-04-08T07:45:00.723Z

[BREAKING] [3] Ghalibaf to lead Iranian side in Friday talks with US - ISNA Time: 2026-04-08T07:31:37.176Z

[4] Trump ultimatum brought world close to disaster, Spain says Time: 2026-04-08T07:25:31.525Z

[5] Macron warns Lebanon situation remains critical despite US-Iran ceasefire Time: 2026-04-08T07:17:43.530Z

[6] EU’s Kallas says Hormuz must be open again, backs mediation Time: 2026-04-08T07:09:48.346Z

[7] Iran, Finland foreign ministers hold phone talks on regional issues Time: 2026-04-08T06:58:26.302Z

[8] South Korea to work for swift Hormuz transit for its ships, media say Time: 2026-04-08T06:44:06.579Z

[9] India to receive first Iranian oil shipment in seven years, tracking data show Time: 2026-04-08T06:38:55.423Z

[10] Iran arrests six over alleged enemy links Time: 2026-04-08T06:30:52.829Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled